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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:07 am 
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Now, some laughs at Dr.Trump expenses

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From a guy who bankrupted so many times…
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Note: As you have guessed this post is NOT Pedro approved but it was meant to cheer him up !
"A ta santé, Pédro !"

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:06 am 
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You'd have to be a complete fucking moron to support Trump at this point. What an incompetent piece of shit he is.

Trump is the BIGGEST failure in US history and it happened in less than one term.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... h-disaster


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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:13 am 
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Trump started a war against his own folks.
Civil War, take 2, in a modern form…
:P

Just a reminder of what a moron that guy is. . .
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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:09 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:09 pm 
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Trump moves the coronavirus goal posts,
pre-spinning 100,000 deaths as ‘a very good job’

Aaron Blake
6 hours ago


On February the 26th, when there were 15 reported cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States, President Trump predicted the number of cases would soon be “down to close to zero.”
On March the 5th, he hailed the fact that there were about 3,000 deaths worldwide but only 11 in the United States.

On March the 9th, he noted that there were just 22 U.S. deaths and compared the virus to the seasonal flu, which has killed 37,000 people this year.

On March on the 13th, he said the 2009 swine flu had killed 14,000 people in the United States and called the Obama administration’s response to it “a disaster.”

On Sunday night, the same president set the goal posts for his administration’s response to the coronavirus in a very different place. In a White House briefing in the Rose Garden, Trump referenced new data from his task force and said that between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths would represent a victory over the coronavirus.

In doing so, Trump seemed to suddenly embrace coronavirus projections that he had previously shrugged off and downplayed. Rather than put an optimistic spin on what lies ahead, he instead sought to use the direst projections to pre-spin his administration’s response as a success.

As The Washington Post’s Philip Rucker reported, Trump pointed no fewer than 16 times to the direst projections of 2 million or more U.S. deaths in the Sunday briefing. This was most prominently projected in an Imperial College London study that spurred a more aggressive response in the United States and Britain two weeks ago.

“So you’re talking about 2.2 million deaths, 2.2 million people from this,” Trump said. “And so if we could hold that down, as we’re saying, to 100,000 — it’s a horrible number, maybe even less — but to 100,000. So we have between 100 and 200,000, and we altogether have done a very good job."

Trump added, “But to point to up to 2.2 million deaths and maybe even beyond that, I’m feeling very good about what we did last week.”

As The Post’s William Booth reported when the Imperial College London study came out, that 2.2 million figure was a worst-case scenario in which virtually no precautions were taken — and Trump, to his credit, acknowledged that at one point Sunday.

The number was halved if the two countries were more aggressive:

If Britain and the United States pursued more-ambitious measures to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, to slow but not necessarily stop the epidemic over the coming few months, they could reduce mortality by half, to 260,000 people in the United Kingdom and 1.1 million in the United States.

But it was significantly lower for Britain if the most aggressive steps were taken:

Finally, if the British government quickly went all-out to suppress viral spread — aiming to reverse epidemic growth and reduce the case load to a low level — then the number of dead in the country could drop to below 20,000. To do this, the researchers said, Britain would have to enforce social distancing for the entire population, isolate all cases, demand quarantines of entire households where anyone is sick, and close all schools and universities — and do this not for weeks but for 12 to 18 months, until a vaccine is available.

As Booth noted, the model didn’t provide a number for the United States in the case of the most aggressive response. But if you apply the same percentage-wise decline to both Britain and the United States — as the study did between the worst-case scenario and the middle option — it would be about 85,000 deaths in the United States. That’s pretty close to what Trump is now aiming for.

Whether that would actually be the victory that Trump says it would be is subjective. But it’s notable that he’s now playing up those projections, after he spent the initial weeks of the outbreak suggesting the situation was “under control” and floating the idea that the virus could suddenly, miraculously disappear. The number of deaths he’s now talking about would be substantially higher than the seasonal flu and swine flu numbers he has repeatedly compared the current situation with — and in the latter case argued signified a failed response.

The swine flu, of course, was significantly less deadly than the coronavirus. But that didn’t stop Trump from making a comparison that has now turned out to be rather shortsighted. The flu comparison also was faulty from the start because the mortality rate and the transmission rate have been shown to be substantially lower.


The problem with setting the goal posts for your own success in the middle of a crisis is that there is so much you don’t know, and you can wind up setting an expectation that will later suggest you didn’t take things seriously enough or that your response was a failure. But Trump did it again Sunday — albeit in a significantly less optimistic way.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/tr ... id=BHEA000

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:19 pm 
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To consider 100000 or 200000 deaths as a Victory says a lot about POTUS.
It says that he failed.
I guess he must secretly hopes that all these deaths are democrat voters.

The fact is that his reaction was at least a month too late.
And that will add up to the final number of deaths.

Aren't you glad to have such a "leader" ?
:smoke:

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:08 am 
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Trump on the 30th of March...
“I know South Korea better than anybody. It’s a very tight … You know how many people are in Seoul? You know how big the city of Seoul is? 38 million people. That’s bigger than anything we have. 38 million people all tightly wound together."

Except that it isn't.
The population of Seoul is 9,776 million.
However, if you look on Wikipedia, you will find that it is 38 m[etres] above sea level.
Which appears to be Trump's source for the 38 million figure.

Either that, or he's been asking Disco Boy about figures again.

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:52 am 
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Caputh wrote:
Either that, or he's been asking Disco Boy about figures again.


OOOOHHH ! That explains a lot of things !!!
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:54 am 
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Bill Bramhall
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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:00 am 
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STRATEGY ???
It can't happen here. . .

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THIS LAST ONE IS SO TRUE. . .
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Note: As usual... NOT Pedro approved :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:01 pm 
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Caputh wrote:
Trump on the 30th of March...
“I know South Korea better than anybody. It’s a very tight … You know how many people are in Seoul? You know how big the city of Seoul is? 38 million people. That’s bigger than anything we have. 38 million people all tightly wound together."

Except that it isn't.
The population of Seoul is 9,776 million.
However, if you look on Wikipedia, you will find that it is 38 m[etres] above sea level.
Which appears to be Trump's source for the 38 million figure.

Either that, or he's been asking Disco Boy about figures again.


Stunning.....

Donald's depth of incompetence knows no bounds.....

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Last edited by Gray_Ghost on Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:11 pm 
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Just because here it's just plain ol' fun !!!!
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Aahhh ! It's good to have some friends...
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AND, TO SUM IT UP . . .
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Note: Oh Boy !!! This post is defintely NOT Pedro approved.
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:18 pm 
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https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

This past weekend, I was surveyed over the telephone by Rasmussen Reports. The process was quite lengthy, taking about 10 minutes to complete. Answers were generally given on a scale of 1 to 5.

Here are the results to the number one question regarding Trump's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic:

Trump Approve: 48%
Trump Disapprove: 54%
Net Approval: -9%

Steve Sack
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Rick McKee
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R. J. Matson
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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:13 pm 
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https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/490469-howard-stern-hits-trump-for-bragging-about-ratings-of

In a time of crisis, bragging about that ?
Senseless, no brain, no heart, no judgement, no compassion, no empathy, an empty shell, a complete dumbass
And there's still Americans who put their faith in him ?

Trump is inducing vomit in USA.
:P

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:28 pm 
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AMERICA FIRST

Did the Trump Administration Send 18 Tons of Personal Protective Equipment to China in Early 2020?

Critics have questioned the wisdom of exporting to China medical supplies that would soon be vitally needed in the U.S.

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Image True

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/us-tons-ppe-china/


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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:47 pm 
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^^^^^ Stand by for a message from your President blaming Obama in 3, 2, 1 ^^^^^

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:06 am 
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Americans dying while Trump supporters are applauding.
:P
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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:49 am 
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Bart van Leeuwen
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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:25 pm 
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And now Pence is trying to blame the CDC...of which Trump gutted the pandemic response team in 2018 because he hates Obama.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/politics ... index.html


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:59 am 
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Coronavirus: US President Donald Trump resists national shutdown
10:57, April, 2nd, 2020.

US President Donald Trump is resisting calls to issue a national stay-at-home order to stem the spread of the new coronavirus despite his administration's projections that tens of thousands of Americans are likely to be killed by the disease.

One by one, though, states are increasingly pushing shutdown orders of their own.

Trump said earlier this week that he and members of his administration had discussed issuing a stay-at-home order but it was "pretty unlikely" for now.

The White House later released "sobering" new projections that 100,000 to 240,000 Americans will likely succumb to the coronavirus even if current social distancing guidelines are maintained.

Surgeon General Jerome Adams said on Wednesday (Thursday NZ time) the nation's federalist system leaves much of the authority on how to properly respond to catastrophes to individual state governors and local officials.

"We trust the governors and the mayors to understand their people and understand whether or not they feel like they can trust the people in their states to make the right decisions," Adams said on ABC's Good Morning America.

On Wednesday alone, three more states - Florida, Nevada and Pennsylvania - added or expanded their stay-at-home orders.

But the invocation of federalism in the midst of a crisis that threatens a nationwide body count on par with some of the deadliest American wars suggests that Trump and his advisers are cognisant of the political ramifications of their response.

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EVAN VUCCI/AP
US President Donald Trump is resisting calls to issue a national stay-at-home order to stem the spread of Covid-19.

Republican governors in states like Florida, Texas and Nebraska have questioned the necessity of applying strong social distancing rules to rural or exurban areas that haven't reported much evidence of the virus so far.

The lack of a unified, 50-state response also collides with evidence emerging that coronavirus infections are being spread by people who have no clear symptoms, complicating efforts to gain control of the pandemic.

A study conducted by researchers in Singapore and published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday is the latest to estimate that around 10 per cent of new coronavirus infections may be spread by people who were infected with the virus but not experiencing symptoms.

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Mary Altaffer/AP
Oxygen is delivered to a 68-bed emergency field hospital in New York's Central Park on March the 31st.

Even while deferring to governors, the Trump administration has issued guidelines that have urged Americans to work from home if possible, cancel on-site instruction at schools, and avoid large gatherings.

The resistance to a more robust response comes even as Vice President Mike Pence said White House models for the coronavirus toll show the country on a trajectory akin to hard-hit Italy.

Speaking to CNN, Pence said, "We think Italy may be the most comparable area to the United States at this point."

Italy, which has already recorded more than 13,000 deaths, has issued a nationwide quarantine, shutting down almost all industrial production and offices and largely prohibiting residents from leaving their homes.

The White House's best-case projection for loss of life assumes statewide stay-at-home orders, according to a senior administration official familiar with Trump's thinking.

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Patrick Semansky/AP
President Trump listens as Vice President Mike Pence speaks during a coronavirus task force briefing at the White House on March the 29th.

Trump, the official said, is a believer in federalism and that it is up to individual governors to set restrictions for their states. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal discussions.

More than 272 million people live in the 38 states where governors have declared statewide shelter-in-place orders or have recommended that residents stay home.

In other states - places like Iowa, Nebraska and Georgia, among others - governors have resisted state-level decisions, but some localities have declared residents should stay at home. Those types of local orders cover Atlanta, St Louis and Oklahoma City, along with dozens of other counties and cities.

According to a poll published on Wednesday by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 78 per cent of US adults, including 84 per cent of Democrats and 76 per cent of Republicans, favour requiring Americans to stay in their homes except for essential errands.

Americans in states that already had stay-at-home orders in place when the survey began are more likely than those in states that did not to approve of their state's response, 63 per cent to 51 per cent.

Still, Trump - who has conducted long, near-daily briefings on his administration's response to the virus outbreak over the last three weeks - has been reluctant so far to use his bully pulpit to urge governors to issue orders that would help effectively create a national quarantine.

But there are signs that Trump administration officials are pushing behind the scenes for holdout governors to issue statewide quarantines.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had resisted issuing a statewide order but reversed course and issued one on Wednesday as federal and local pressure mounted for him to abandon the county-by-county approach he had implemented.

DeSantis, a Republican, told reporters that he decided to issue the order after consulting with Trump and White House advisers.

Representative Donna Shalala, a Florida Democrat, said earlier on Wednesday that Trump should be pressing governors for a unified approach to help stem the spread of the disease, calling his response so far "fragmented, weak and uneven".

"He hasn't made a national plea to say we're all in this together, and he hasn't even talked to the governors about all doing the same thing," Shalala, who was secretary of health and human services under former US president Bill Clinton, said in an interview.

Authority to order quarantines inside states rests almost entirely with states under provisions in the US Constitution ceding power not explicitly delegated to the federal government to states, courts have ruled consistently for years.

While the federal government itself can't order nationwide quarantines or impose quarantines on states, courts have said it has clear power under constitutional clauses regulating commerce to quarantine international travellers or those travelling state to state who might be carriers of deadly diseases.

A few legal scholars have argued that the Constitution's Commerce Clause may vest Trump with powers to impose a multiple state or national lockdown with or without states' approval, though any such move under that minority interpretation would almost certainly be challenged immediately as unconstitutional.

Pence told CNN that leaders and residents of states that haven't been hard hit are already taking action to slow the virus' spread.

In Nebraska, Republican Governor Pete Ricketts has said he's basing his decisions on the advice he gets from public health experts at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, which has dealt extensively with outbreaks and served as a quarantine space for Ebola patients.

In Iowa, Republican Governor Kim Reynolds has resisted a mandatory shelter-in-place order, saying the data she is looking at doesn't yet justify it in her state.

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, another Republican, said her voluntary guidance had helped slow the infection rate. "The calls to apply a one-size-fits-all approach is herd mentality, it's not leadership," she said.

Ricketts, a vocal Trump supporter, has repeatedly said he won't impose a stay-at-home order in Nebraska but has ordered restaurants either to close their dining areas or allow no more than 10 people inside at once, depending on their location in the state.

In Texas, Republican Governor Greg Abbott has ordered schools to stay closed through at least May and imposed restrictions that doctors and even his critics say are tantamount to a stay-at-home order for the state. Still, Abbott refused to call it that.

"This is not a stay-at-home strategy. A stay-at-home strategy would mean that you have to stay home," Abbott said. "This is a standard based upon essential services and essential activities."


AAP

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/ ... l-shutdown

Dog Begs For US Shutdown

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Still Trump Resists

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:53 am 
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I'd really like to hear Pedro trying to justify his Idol. . .

Out of curiosity. Just to see how far one will go in spin-doctor babblings.
Trump downsizing of the crisis will cost thousands of American lives.
I'd really like to know how a die-hard Trump fan can find logical reasons to continue his love-affair with Trump.

So, Pedro, speak up !

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:05 am 
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When you're standing next to a supreme moron, you can't help but try to hide your face
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...or bite your lips

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:42 pm 
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"Told ya so"
.
Should be the campaign slogan. Stupid fools that voted for and continue to support piece of shit "Failin' Trump".

Biggest economic collapse in US history.

Biggest jobs loss in US history

Highest unemployment rate in US history underway.

Highest for closure rates in US history underway.

Biggest socialist bailout of capitalism in global history.

Highest pandemic death rate in a century underway.


Make America A Third World Country 2020 campaign is underway. Thanks Trumpfuck.


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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:58 pm 
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MAKE AMERICANS GETTING ACHE
...and Pedro lost his voice…

As for Trump, the perfect example of the Peter principle
The Peter principle is a concept in management developed by Laurence J. Peter, which observes that people in a hierarchy tend to rise to their "level of incompetence": an employee is promoted based on their success in previous jobs until they reach a level at which they are no longer competent, as skills in one job do not necessarily translate to another. The concept was elucidated in the 1969 book The Peter Principle by Dr Peter and Raymond Hull.

Smart folks knew he was incompetent way before he got elected.
:smoke:

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 Post subject: Re: TRUMP
PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:23 am 
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Experts and Trump’s advisers doubt White House’s 240,000 coronavirus deaths estimate
William Wan, Josh Dawsey, Ashley Parker, Joel Achenbach
5 hrs ago

Leading disease forecasters, whose research the White House used to conclude 100,000 to 240,000 people will die nationwide from the coronavirus, were mystified when they saw the administration’s projection this week.

The experts said they don’t challenge the numbers’ validity but that they don’t know how the White House arrived at them.

White House officials have refused to explain how they generated the figure — a death toll bigger than the United States suffered in the Vietnam War or the 9/11 terrorist attacks. They have not provided the underlying data so others can assess its reliability or provided long-term strategies to lower that death count.

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© Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post
Dr. Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus response coordinator, explains “flattening the curve” while showing charts with members of the coronavirus task force at the White House on Tuesday, March 31, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

Some of President Trump’s top advisers have expressed doubts about the estimate, according to three White House officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. There have been fierce debates inside the White House about its accuracy.

At a task force meeting this week, according to two officials with direct knowledge of it, Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told others there are too many variables at play in the pandemic to make the models reliable: “I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models.”

Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the vice president’s office have similarly voiced doubts about the projections’ accuracy, the three officials said.

Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist whose models were cited by the White House, said his own work on the pandemic doesn’t go far enough into the future to make predictions akin to the White House fatality forecast.

“We don’t have a sense of what’s going on in the here and now, and we don’t know what people will do in the future,” he said. “We don’t know if the virus is seasonal, as well.”

The estimate appeared to be a rushed affair, said Marc Lipsitch, a leading epidemiologist and director of Harvard University’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. “They contacted us, I think, on a Tuesday a week ago, and asked for answers and feedback by Thursday, basically 24 hours,” he said. “My initial response was we can’t do it that fast. But we ended up providing them some numbers responding to very specific scenarios.”

Other experts noted that the White House didn’t even explain the time period the death estimate supposedly captures — just the coming few months, or the year-plus it will take to deploy a vaccine.

Almost the entirety of what the public knows about the death projection was presented on a single slide at a briefing Tuesday from the White House coronavirus task force. A White House representative said the task force has not publicly released the models it drew from out of respect for the confidentiality of the modelers, many of whom approached the White House unsolicited and simply want to continue their work without publicity.

A representative for Fauci did not respond to a request for comment. A spokeswoman for Vice President Pence declined to comment. On a Thursday call with conservative leaders, Pence said it was “difficult” to view the models but “the president thought it was important to share with the American people.”

Among epidemiologists, the estimate raised more questions than it answered — not just about methodology and accuracy but, perhaps more importantly, about purpose.

The primary goal of such models amid an outbreak is to allow authorities to game out scenarios, foresee challenges and create a coherent, long-term strategy — something some experts worry doesn’t exist within the White House.

“I wish there were more of a concerted national plan. I wish it had started a month and a half ago, maybe two months ago,” Shaman said.

Natalie Dean, a biostatistician who was not involved in the White House effort but is working on coronavirus vaccine evaluation with the World Health Organization, pointed out that “the whole reason you create models is to help you make decisions. But you have to actually act on those projections and answers. Otherwise, the models are useless.”

The president’s models

Image
© Mandel Ngan/Afp Via Getty Images
President Trump's administration Tuesday projected that 100,000 to 240,000 people in the United States could die in the coronavirus pandemic. Now, some disease experts and even White House advisers are expressing doubts about the number. (Mandel Ngan/AFP)

At Tuesday’s briefing, Trump unveiled the government’s projected death count, saying it was based on data “that has been, I think, brilliantly put together.”

The coordinator of Trump’s coronavirus task force, Deborah Birx, then projected a slide with a high-arcing mountain showing the worst-case scenario: 1.5 million to 2.2 million deaths if Americans and the government did absolutely nothing to stop the virus. And a smaller — but still imposing — hill with 100,000 to 240,000 deaths if measures such as social distancing are taken.

Birx said the projection was based on five or six modelers, including from Imperial College in Britain and Harvard, Columbia and Northeastern universities. “It was their models that created the ability to see what these mitigations could do, how steeply they could depress the curve,” Birx said.

But two models appeared to have been particularly influential: the one by Imperial College and one from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington (IHME).

At a news briefing Sunday, Birx explained the process this way: Her task force initially reviewed the work of 12 models. “Then we went back to the drawing board over the last week or two, and worked from the ground up, utilizing actual reporting of cases,” Birx said. “It’s the way we built the HIV model, the TB model, the malaria model. And when we finished, the other group that was working in parallel — which we didn’t know about,” referring to the IHME group.

The IHME model initially estimated deaths through this summer would total 38,000 to 162,000 — a lower projection than many others and beneath the White House’s own estimate. But because of its lower figure and Birx’s comments, experts believe it to be a main source for the White House’s best-case scenario of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.

Meanwhile, the White House appeared to rely on Imperial College for its worst-case scenario. That study estimated as many as 2.2 million U.S. deaths if no action was taken, 1.1 million deaths if moderate mitigation strategies were adopted, and an unspecified number if drastic measures were taken.

But as a common mathematician’s refrain goes: A model is only as good as the assumptions it is built on.

Baked-in assumptions

Image
© Felipe Dana/AP
A covid-19 patient undergoes treatment in an intensive care unit. (Felipe Dana/AP)

Knowing the assumptions built into the White House officials’ projected number could tell us a lot: exactly how contagious and deadly they believe the virus to be. It also would reflect their beliefs on how the federal government and states will behave in coming months and whether they will do enough to make a difference.

The IHME model assumes every state will quickly impose stay-at-home orders, which some states, including Alabama and Missouri, have yet to do. It also assumes the entire country will maintain these restrictions until summer. But Trump has extended the White House’s restrictions until only April 30 and made clear he wants to reopen the country as soon as possible.

Another key question is what time period the White House’s 100,000-to-240,000 projection covers. Imperial College’s worst-case scenario calculated the toll exacted by the virus over a couple of years. But if the White House’s projection covers only the next few months, like the IHME model does, the true death toll will almost certainly be larger because the United States will probably see additional waves of covid-19 until a vaccine is deployed.

And it is important to note, experts say, that the IHME model differs from many epidemiological models — another reason its death estimate may be lower, experts say.

Epidemiological projections are often based on what is called the Susceptible Infectious Recovered model (SIR). It is a mathematical way to represent three different populations in an outbreak: those vulnerable to infection, those who are infectious and those gradually removed from the equation by death or recovery.

IHME, however, took an entirely different approach. It is a statistical model that takes the trending curve of deaths from China, for example, and “fits” that curve to emerging death data from cities and counties to predict what might come next.

“It’s a valuable tool, providing updated state-by-state projections, but it is inherently optimistic because it assumes that all states respond as swiftly as China,” said Dean, a biostatistician at University of Florida.

In an interview earlier this week, the head of the IHME group, Christopher Murray, said his model was created for a different purpose from Imperial College’s.

“The reason we created our model is to help hospitals plan. How many beds you’ll need, how many ventilators, when the peak is likely coming,” Murray said. The purpose of Imperial’s model “is to make people realize government intervention is crucial and what would happen without that.”

An audience of one

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© Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post
President Trump and Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, presented projections Tuesday of the toll the coronavirus could impose on the United States. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

For the past decade, the federal government has been nurturing a group of about 50 epidemiologists and math modelers at universities. The U.S. government launched the effort when it became apparent that U.S. expertise in disease modeling was outstripped by England’s world-class experts, said Dylan George, a former Obama administration official at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy who was involved in that effort.

Since January, the CDC has been working with that larger group of modeling teams but it has been unclear, especially in recent weeks, how much the White House was listening to their data and projections.

The handful of projections the task force has plucked from the group and used in White House discussions, administration officials said, are sometimes deployed with an audience of one in mind: Trump.

Officials have said the Imperial College’s eye-popping 2.2 million death projection convinced Trump to stop dismissing the outbreak and take it more seriously. Similarly, officials said, the new projection of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths is what convinced Trump to extend restrictions for 30 days and abandon his push to reopen parts of the country by Easter, which many health experts believe could have worsened the outbreak.

But what remains unclear and alarming to many modelers is whether the White House is using their data to create a coordinated, coherent long-term strategy.

What’s the plan?

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© Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post
President Trump holds his daily briefing Wednesday on the coronavirus pandemic. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

Such a national strategy is critical because of the lag time in data that comes with outbreaks.

Any numbers we see today — confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths — lag two to three weeks behind how the virus is spreading. So decisions made by authorities based on that present-day data are, almost by definition, reactive and potentially come too late.

To get ahead of a virus like this one, authorities must use projections of the future to act in the present.

A White House official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the official was not authorized to speak by name said the administration does have long-term plans and has been addressing those concerns in the daily briefings.

“Repurposing a [car] plant to make ventilators is great, but honestly — I’m not one to cast stones — but it could have been done earlier,” said Shaman, the Columbia University epidemiologist whose models have been reviewed by the White House.

But Shaman doesn’t think the White House’s death projection is too low, nor does he think it’s too late to act decisively.

“I think we can come in under 100,000 deaths. I do,” he said. “The jury is not yet in on this.”

Lena H. Sun contributed to this report.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/ex ... id=BHEA000

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