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PostPosted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:16 pm 
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Sorry Eddie, Jacinda's closed the border(s) to all but NZ citizens with a proven 14 day quarantine
pre arrival followed by another fourteen day quarantine once you get here.....

What if i said I was from the South Island (Tasmania)? :mrgreen:


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:09 pm 
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Melania Trump wrote:
Quote:
Sorry Eddie, Jacinda's closed the border(s) to all but NZ citizens with a proven 14 day quarantine
pre arrival followed by another fourteen day quarantine once you get here.....

What if i said I was from the South Island (Tasmania)? :mrgreen:


Pre lockdown all you would have needed was a sob story and a hijab, spray tan optional :lol:

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:14 pm 
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Gray_Ghost wrote:
Melania Trump wrote:
Quote:
Sorry Eddie, Jacinda's closed the border(s) to all but NZ citizens with a proven 14 day quarantine
pre arrival followed by another fourteen day quarantine once you get here.....

What if i said I was from the South Island (Tasmania)? :mrgreen:


Pre lockdown all you would have needed was a sob story and a hijab, spray tan optional :lol:


So no Eureka flag then :|
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:10 pm 
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:lol: no no :lol:

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:03 pm 
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According to the man, NZ is now up to: 1039 coronavirus cases

872 confirmed

167 probable

1 dead

156 recovered

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:32 am 
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Huge feral hogs invading Canada, building ‘pigloos’ as they go
Andrea Anderson
1 day ago

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© Photograph by Roland Seitre, Minden Pictures
Feral pigs are spreading through Canada. Here is a large boar in a park in Quebec, though the largest populations are found further west.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, some Canadian farmers imported wild boars from Europe to raise for meat. But as wild boars are wont to do, some of them escaped, either digging under fences or barreling through them. Others were set free once the boar meat market cooled.

At first, it didn’t seem like a big problem; many thought they couldn’t survive Canada’s long winters. But the boars proved hardier than some researchers expected, and now they’re causing havoc across wide swaths of Canada.

The descendants of these wild boars have interbred with domestic pigs to varying degrees, and are now found throughout western and central Canada, from British Columbia to Manitoba and beyond. As they spread, they sow environmental destruction, plowing through crops and grasslands, causing erosion, displacing wildlife, harassing livestock, and eating just about anything.

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© Photograph by Neil Bowman, Minden Pictures
Feral pigs are better known in warm places like Florida, shown here. But they have shown the ability to survive in Canada's cold climate as well.

These feral fugitives can weigh up to 600 pounds or more, and sport sharp tusks and bristly coats over thick, warm fur. They are reproducing rapidly and their range is expanding. Their combination of wild traits and domestic ones—including their high tolerance for cold and ability to birth large litters—may have led to “super pigs,” says Ryan Brook, a wildlife researcher with the University of Saskatchewan. The creatures even have been known to build above-ground shelters that researchers have dubbed “pigloos.”

“We should be worried, because we know the biology,” Brook says. “They're called an ecological train wreck for a reason.”

Got pigs?

The hog explosion is a new problem, and until recently, “no one even knew where they were,” says Ruth Aschim, a doctoral candidate at the University of Saskatchewan. She and her advisor Brook spent three years mapping their distribution using trail camera images, GPS collar data, and interviews with local landowners, farmers, and hunters.

For three months of the project, Aschim lived out of her tent and her car, meeting with local biologists and conservation officers across western Canada.

The results, published in a paper in Scientific Reports in May 2019, reveal wild pigs have spread extensively over the past three decades, with sightings emanating outward from former boar farms. They’re continuing to move into new territory, far beyond where they were once raised.

Porcine pests

Canadian feral hogs often eat crops such as wheat, barley, and canola as they range through prairies and farm lands and into the edges of forests and wetlands. They will make a meal out of most anything that fits into their mouths, including plants, small reptiles or mammals, ground-nesting birds, and eggs.

Image
© Photograph by Ryan Brook

Feral hogs cut down cattails with their sharp teeth and use them to line the insides of their pigloos, or to make beds in which to rest in the summer.
Beyond the damage they can do to field crops, grain bins and storage containers, the pigs can plow through large patches of farmland in search of invertebrates, roots, and other edibles.

“The rooting is really something to see. It's almost like a small backhoe has gone through some of these pastures,” says Perry Abramenko, an inspector and pest program specialist with Alberta Agriculture and Forestry.

Wild pigs also wallow in stream beds, causing erosion and water contamination, Abramenko says. And given their close relationship to domestic pigs, experts have raised concerns about potential infectious diseases that could be passed back and forth between the animals.

Canada’s pig problem is relatively new, however, and many impacts have yet to be fully felt. Crop insurance claims attributed to wild pigs in Saskatchewan, for example, are still far outpaced by damage from other wildlife, according to the Saskatchewan Crop Insurance Corporation.

Moreover, pigs are elusive; even though seen on trail cameras, residents might not know they’re around. Even so, economic and ecological problems associated with pigs—including risks posed to motorists—are expected to grow alongside the mushrooming pig population.

That has people like Brook concerned about the lack of a comprehensive plan to reduce their numbers in Canada, despite some initial efforts and meetings—lots of meetings. Without concrete action, time may be running out to turn back the wild pig tide.

“Meetings don't eradicate wild pigs,” he says.

Prior to such research, a Canadian feral pig scourge was hard to fathom. In the United States, the animals are best known in the south and warmer coastal areas, such as Florida, Texas, and California, where Spanish explorers introduced pigs as far back as the 1500s.

In western Canada, though, “we have the exact opposite,” Brook says. “The coldest spots—Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta, sort of north-central—is where we have, by far, the most pigs."

Why? The answer may lay partly in their history and heritage.

Swine on the move

Most taxonomists agree that domestic pigs and European wild boars are the same species, Sus scrofa, though different subspecies. They readily interbreed if given the chance. Wild boars are native to Eurasia, ranging from North Africa to Scandinavia and east to Siberia. They are not native to the Americas, though pig-like peccaries range throughout Latin America.

Humans have been raising domestic pigs, descendants of European wild boars, for around 10,000 years. The domestic variety has less hair and has been bred to be large and meaty, while reproducing quickly, particularly since the advent of commercial pig farming.

The descendants of escaped pigs can take on characteristics of their boar ancestors, including longer coats, though these “feral pigs” or “wild hogs” may harbor distinct color patterns and other remnants of domesticity.

Many feral pigs in the U.S. have strong domestic ancestry. A February 2020 study in Molecular Ecology of genetic data taken from 6,500 feral animals across the U.S. found that most descend from a mix of heritage breed domestic pigs—the kind raised as livestock prior to industrialized agriculture—and wild boar.

Their Canadian counterparts, however, are believed to be much more closely related to wild boars, but do have dashes of domestic pig ancestry. This is backed up by camera trap observations of hogs with pink coloration and polka-dot splotches, traits not seen in European wild pigs. They also have up to six piglets at a time twice per year, a larger litter size than that of Eurasian boars.

“If we had true Eurasian wild boar without any domestic pig, this whole issue would be a lot easier to handle… Reproductive rates would be lower,” Brook says.

The distinctive “pigloos” the animals build consist of mounds of cattails, which they cut down and burrow into, capturing enough heat to steam on cold days, Brook explains.

“The cattails do a good job of catching the snow and it's fairly thick and soft, so they can tunnel into that and have their little pigloos,” Brook says.

Why so big?

The animals are also notable for their smarts, toughness, and tremendous size.

While Eurasian wild boars tend to be smaller in the southern parts of their native range, they become bigger in the north, following a pattern common across many animal species. (Related: Wild boars make a home in bustling Hong Kong.)

A wild boar in Barcelona, for example, might be lucky to reach 220 pounds. That’s similar to North American wild pigs, which on average weigh between 150 and 220 pounds. Though Canadian pigs vary widely, Brook and his team captured at least one wild hog that was well over 600 pounds.

That apparent size increase may offer a selective advantage in the cold, Brook notes. Mixing between wild boar and commercial pig breeds likely contributes to that, since traits such as heft and large litter size have been under intense selection in farmed pigs as well.

These hybrid pigs and new and unfamiliar to many; it’s perhaps no wonder, then, that some folks don’t seem to think they present much of a threat, Brook says. But he disagrees. Pretty much everywhere else the pigs are found, they’ve created problems.

“Why would we expect anything except vast, dramatic ecological impacts?”

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/hu ... id=BHEA000

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:31 pm 
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According to the man, NZ is now up to: 1,106 coronavirus cases

911 confirmed

195 probable

1 dead

176 recovered

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:00 am 
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According to the man, NZ is now up to: 1,160 coronavirus cases

943 confirmed

217 probable

1 dead

241 recovered

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:22 am 
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https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers
Australian Capital Territory 97
New South Wales 2,686
Northern Territory 27
Queensland 934
South Australia 415
Tasmania 88
Victoria 1,191
Western Australia 470
Total
5,908
& Cohuna 1
and it ain't me :mrgreen:


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:10 pm 
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Joep Bertrams
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:41 pm 
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China's coronavirus pandemic epicentre Wuhan ends 76-day lockdown
Sam McNeil·13:19, April 8th, 2020.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... y-lockdown

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:57 pm 
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And with only 3,333 deaths it seems.
USA has about 4 times more already.
So, there's hope in the long run IF we take care.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:31 pm 
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According to the man, NZ is now up to: 1,210 coronavirus cases

969 confirmed

241 probable

1 dead

282 recovered

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:33 pm 
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In France :mrgreen:
what if Foster was fermented into Champagne would they still sue :mrgreen:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-09/tasmania-champagne-bubbly-france-comite-champagne/12132304
Quote:
Tasmanian farmer's rhubarb champagne post sparks legal warning from France

A Tasmanian farmer's suggestion that people make champagne with their surplus rhubarb has drawn a legal warning from the French. Guy Robertson from Penguin-based Mount Gnomon Farm suggested on social media that those with surplus rhubarb could treat themselves, as he had, by brewing some homemade rhubarb bubbly, which he termed champagne.

A couple of days later he received a phone call from a French official in relation to the post "He was a really nice guy, he said: 'I know it's a really bad time around the world at the moment, but our legal team takes it very seriously'
"He said he has been doing it for three years and it's his job to make sure everyone complies and nobody markets their bubbles as champagne unless you come from the Champagne region in France.

"It was a funny moment for me, I just couldn't believe I had a call from France in the current climate about 10 litres of home-brew that we aren't even marketing."
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:21 pm 
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^^^^^ rhubarb! ^^^^^

According to the man, NZ is now up to: 1,239 coronavirus cases

992 confirmed

247 probable

1 dead

317 recovered


Coronavirus: Police turning back holidaymakers trying to breach lockdown rules
Stuff reporters·15:39, April 9th, 2020.

Police are already turning back would be holidaymakers trying to head away for the long weekend.

It comes as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern pleaded with people not to be selfish and warned there would be road blocks and extra police over Easter.

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DAVID WHITE/STUFF
Police at a checkpoint in Maramarua where they turned around 20 per cent of the traffic.

New Zealanders were breaking the chain of Covid-19 transmission but success did not mean it was time to change the course, she said.

This is why the rules would continue and there would be extra enforcement over Easter.

"You will have seen an increase in police enforcement in recent days, I expect that to continue, including road blocks in some places this Easter weekend," Ardern said.

"While most people are doing the right thing, some are not. We cannot let the selfish actions of a few set us back.

"No one wants that, especially after all that everyone has sacrificed to get us here."

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Ross Giblin/Stuff
Police are cracking down on anyone who might be travelling for non-essential purposes over Easter weekend. This checkpoint is on SH1 near Plimmerton, north of Wellington.

Removing restrictions now would allow the virus to spread rapidly once again and New Zealand could be back to the starting line within two weeks, she said.

"That's also why we will keep enforcing the rules."

Police have advised people not to travel during the lockdown.

CHECKPOINTS NATIONWIDE

In Wellington on Thursday, police were stopping and checking all vehicles travelling north out of Wellington on SH1 near Plimmerton. Police said there had been a stream of cars stopped there already today.

Canterbury road policing manager Inspector Greg Cottam said Canterbury was not seeing a great deal of traffic on its highways apart from essential service vehicles.

Canterbury police would be setting up random checkpoints around the region from Thursday, looking for people who may be moving out of their bubble, he said.

Police would be "educating" people on isolation rules and relying on their goodwill to follow those rules. Warnings or prosecution would only be used for serious or repeat offenders, he said.

In Waikato police set up five checkpoints in the district as well as other checkpoints on the borders with Counties Manukau and Bay of Plenty police.

At a checkpoint set up in Maramarua police had turned around 20 per cent of the traffic, acting Waikato district commander Inspector Andrew Mortimore said.

"It's not people trying to get to baches or holiday spots, it's people going for drives for the sake of going for a drive."

He reminded people they should only be moving to access essential services.

They also had checkpoints in place on Wednesday night in Kopu-Hikuai and Mortimore said only nine cars in total came through the two checkpoints.

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JOHN KIRK ANDERSON/STUFF
A police officer stops a driver at Tai Tapu, Canterbury, who was traveling to Akaroa to visit family. He was turned around.

However, police were worried about the high number of people who appeared to be in Whangamata and Whitianga.

"We are monitoring that."

If people had got to their baches for the long weekend, Mortimore said they might not get home again.

"If people have got there and they shouldn't have got there, that's really disappointing.

"We will be doing checkpoints over the weekend so if people have got into those locations and are thinking they will head home ... they might get turned around."

Tasman road policing team leader Senior Sergeant Grant Andrews said before noon on Thursday, more than 10 vehicles from Christchurch heading to holiday spots in Nelson, Golden Bay and the West Coast were stopped and told to return home.

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Ross Giblin/Stuff
Police stop vehicles travelling north out of Wellington on SH1 near Plimmerton on Thursday.

Canterbury police have warned there will be random checkpoints from today, while Waikato police have set up several checkpoints.

CAMPERVANS TURNED BACK

Andrews said a checkpoint had been set up at O'Sullivan's Bridge on State Highway 6 south of Murchison, due to the volume of traffic coming into the region from Canterbury and further south.

"There's been campervans, house buses and the like which have been clearly breaching the lockdown – and that's all there is to it.

"They've been warned, turned around, and sent back to their place of origin."

Andrews said due to the expected increase in volume on the road, the Murchison checkpoint would be strengthened and another set up at Springs Junction.

There were no excuses for people being uninformed about the rules of lockdown at this time, he said.

"You can't be unaware, there are signs on the road sides asking if your travel is essential –it's very clear you shouldn't be travelling.

"The risk we've got is we have people outside of the Tasman District trying to come here. There's very limited traffic trying to go the other way, it's people from further down south trying to come up into the West Coast and Nelson and Marlborough, which is really disappointing."

Andrews said no other checkpoints had been needed so far in Nelson, with very few people having to be turned away from the roads leading to Golden Bay and other holiday spots.

Ideally checkpoints would have been a "last resort", but because of the traffic they had been necessary for police to do their job safely, he said.

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John Cowpland
There were no checkpoints on the road to Waimarama and Ocean Beach in Hawkes Bay, but a makeshift sign was getting the message across.

"We don't want to be doing checkpoints, we just want to be talking to individuals as they come along, when the traffic levels should be very light."

Another checkpoint had been set up on SH6 at Hira, the main link between Blenheim and Nelson, Nelson police said on its Facebook page.

Forty vehicles were stopped by police within 90 minutes, with 12 of them found to have no valid reason for travelling, the post said.

"These people were warned and told to go home immediately. Please stay home and stay safe."


Stuff

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/ ... down-rules

Ghost Note: Once again it's the "self entitled" few f#@king it up for the many.....

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:51 am 
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^^^^^ rhubarb! ^^^^^

Its a vegetable :smoke:
Dom Perignon Rhubarb :mrgreen:


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:22 am 
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Coronavirus in Africa: Emergency laws v individual rights

By Dickens Olewe BBC News

Armed variously with guns, whips and tear gas canisters, security officers in several African countries have been beating, harassing and, in some cases, killing people as they enforce measures aimed at preventing the spread of Covid-19.


Image

The actions of the police and military are at the sharp end of a debate over the balance between personal freedoms and human rights on the one hand, and the need to protect society as a whole from coronavirus on the other.

Faced with a growing health crisis, some African governments have introduced new emergency laws and digital surveillance echoing an earlier and more oppressive era.

Rights groups have warned that if they are not reversed once the crisis is over then these new measures could undermine basic freedoms.

The authorities say the lockdowns, curfews, and other crowd control measures are aimed at saving lives, but overzealous enforcement has cost lives.

In Kenya, a 13-year-old boy playing on a balcony in a high rise residential building in the capital, Nairobi, was shot dead after being hit by what police described as a "stray bullet".

Three other deaths, including that of a motorcycle taxi rider who succumbed to injuries after being beaten by police, have been reported in the local press.

President Uhuru Kenyatta has apologised "to all Kenyans… for some excesses which were conducted" by the security forces, while urging the public to abide by measures the government had put in place to contain the spread of the virus.
'Gays targeted in Uganda'

In neighbouring Uganda, Human Rights Watch (HRW) has accused police of using "excessive force" - including beating fruit and vegetable sellers and motorcycle taxi riders.

Image

Moreover, police arrested 23 people during a raid on a shelter for homeless lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender youth, accusing them of disobeying orders by remaining in the shelter and charging them with "a negligent act likely to spread infection of disease", HRW said.

"The basic human rights of people should be at the centre of the government's response to this pandemic, especially those who are most vulnerable like street vendors, and homeless youth," HRW said.

In the face of mounting criticism, 10 officers were charged with torture on Tuesday after being accused of caning 38 women and forcing them to swim in mud in the northern town of Elegu. The officers have not yet been asked to plead.

While in South Africa, which has recorded the highest number of Covid-19 cases on the continent, at least eight people have been killed by police since a nationwide lockdown was imposed on 26 March, the country's Independent Police Investigative Directorate said.
'Loaded gun'

Nearly all countries on the continent are battling the spread of coronavirus, and with confirmed cases surpassing 10,000, there are legitimate reasons to be worried about the disease.

Most have poor healthcare systems that could be overwhelmed, resulting in an unprecedented health disaster.

However, global watchdog Freedom House has warned that some measures being used to fight Covid-19 could have lasting "harmful effects and can be extended and re-purposed after a crisis has passed".

Opposition groups in Ghana are, for instance, worried about a new law that gives the president sweeping powers to impose restrictions on people's movements.

"We wanted the president to use emergency powers in the constitution which would require him to come to parliament every three months so that MPs can assess if the measures are needed," Ras Mubarak, an MP for opposition National Democratic Congress, told the BBC.

"The new law gives him a loaded gun to use as he pleases, especially in restricting people's movements."

Ghana's Justice Minister Gloria Akuffo defended the legislation, saying it had been drafted to protect the nation's health and would help deal "not only with the risk that our country has been exposed to presently but also in the future".
'Perfect timing'

Similar concerns have been raised in other countries.

Critics of Malawi's President Peter Mutharika say he is using the coronavirus outbreak to "fix his political problems".

"The government would want to use coronavirus to prolong their stay in power," Gift Trapence, the leader of the Human Rights Defenders Coalition, told the BBC.

Mr Mutharika, who in July is facing a re-run of last year's annulled election, has declared a state of national disaster.

The new powers allow him to ban public gatherings.

"They are happy with the coronavirus status and want to use it as a scapegoat to continue the president's rule," Mr Trapence said.

Malawi's Information Minister Mark Botomani dismissed such comments as "the usual noise" from civil society groups.

"Our focus as a government is to put everything in place to protect the lives of our people," he said.

In Africa's second most-populous country, Ethiopia, a state of emergency has been declared following the indefinite postponement of the much-awaited August election because of coronavirus.

Image

Nobel Prize-winning Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy says he held discussions with opposition leaders on his response plans for the pandemic after some hit out about not being consulted about the poll delay.

Yet it has not eased their fears, with the Oromo Federalist Congress saying the state of emergency should not be misused.
Image copyright Getty Images

Tahir Mohammed, from the National Movement of Amhara, said the decree was too vague and people had "a right to know what was allowed and what was prohibited".

"What we're seeing is that the government is still focusing on activities that have political gains - it's showing a tendency to do politics even now," he told the BBC.

Though Isabel Linzer from Freedom House says when it comes to the vote, a postponement is not a bad idea.

"It may allow time to better prepare and administer a more credible election," she told the BBC.
Magufuli criticised

Another development that rights groups are concerned about is the targeting of people who challenge the official narrative about the health pandemic.

In Tanzania, the Communication Regulatory Authority (TCRA) penalised three TV stations for airing content that was "misleading and untrue" about the government's strategy on fighting coronavirus.

The TCRA did not elaborate, but speculation is that it objected to a report which criticised President John Magufuli for saying that churches should remain open because "coronavirus cannot survive in a church".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52214740

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:20 pm 
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According to the man, NZ is now up to: 1,283 coronavirus cases

1,015 confirmed

268 probable

2 dead

373 recovered

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:35 am 
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^^Very very low death rate, which is good news. RIP

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:34 am 
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Gray_Ghost wrote:
According to the man, NZ is now up to: 1,283 coronavirus cases

1,015 confirmed

268 probable

2 dead

373 recovered


That is highly interesting, what is going on in NZ?

Two unusual things,
One, the new cases are going down without natural immunity of recovered cases, this could be expected from the early lockdown and late arrival from isolation of the NZ island.

The second thing is the unbelievably low death rate, there could be noise in testing skewing the numbers, or because it has not yet "picked up" as happened early in the US.

I really have no idea, but if something is going on genetically, or in the medical care, food, or enviorment, there is something of real value here.

Check this out
Image

New cases are going down. They went up before so people are not immune, but it's going down...this could be explained by lockdown.

The good news is they'll be less of a surge in the hospitals, resulting in less demand for ventilators, so lives will be saved (that we're unnecessarily losing now in the US is because we didn't elect Nader who's #4 platform item was that we were woefully underprepared for the next pandemic (the simple things like testing kits, disinfectant equipment - as the prepared South Koreans used to flatten their curve immediately without general lockdown;* ventilators and PPE for the next certain pandemic).

The bad news is two things ultimately stop this virus, one is natural immunity, when half the people have had it and recovered for example, the virus will have twice the problem finding non-immune people to spread...the other way to stop it is with a vaccine, which we don't have yet. There may be a third way that Kiwi's have, that remains to be seen, but their death rate is very low, for example, as of today...

Image

The other bad news is if for example 50% are going to be infected before the virus can't proliferate, then that will happen everywhere, just faster and slower in different places until whatever the natural rate is reached, 50% in NYC and 50% in Iowa...generally, not actually.

There should be a lot of noise in these figures, for example only one out of one million people in the US have been tested to date.

So I did some rough math:

NZ 1015 / 2 = 500

US 469, 218 / 16, 000 = 29
Sp 157, 000 / 15, 000 = 10.4
It 143, 626 / 18, 000 = 8
Ge 119, 000 / 2, 600 = 46
Fr 86, 334 /12, 210 = 7
Ch 81, 907 / 3, 336 = 24

So why the hell is NZ at 500, when everyone else is in the lower double digits? Will their situation change (hopefully not), as they move through more cycles?

I have no clue, but I hope it holds...and if it does, there is something going on that needs to be discovered.

Here are the death rates experienced, China and Europe, made up most of this data:
It works out to about 1.4% until a country runs out of ventilators, which doubles the death rate...

Image



Since testing is so unreliable, epidemiologists have a different way to track how a virus moves through a population; they look for the first death...

After a huge sampling from China and Europe, a large amount of data told us three things about the virus, one is that on average, 1.4 % of people infected will die, and two, the AVERAGE time to double infections in a population is 5 days (higher in the subway, lower on the farm), and three, the average time from infection to death in the unlucky 1.4% is 20 days.

I ran the numbers for my state of Connecticut a few weeks ago, but I used a conservative 1% death rate, and so far it has been tracking fairly accurately, (by predicting ahead the only known accurate number: number of deaths).

Here are CT numbers:
Image

Connecticut's first death was 2/28, and that's the date the above chart was predicted from.

I was primarily interested in what the odds were of that new face I contact, or myself, is infected....

For example, there were 380 total deaths in CT as of last night, the newest of these people were infected 20 days ago, or roughly just before 3/28 on the chart above that predicted 256 deaths at the lower rate I used of 1%, (remember, it's 1.4 %, so this chart's 1% puts it a little low on the conservative side). So CT is spreading and dying pretty much as China and Europe did, (not SK or NZ).

An interesting think is on the news, they are giving total cases as total tested/confirmed cases, but since only one in one million people have been tested, that number is pretty much useless, (hence epidemiologists use the first death method, not testing numbers).

For example today there are about 204, 000 cases in Connecticut, not the 9,784 cases reported on the news...that's just tested cases.

A huge thing that affects this chart is days to double...5 days worldwide. SK immediately flattened their curve through testing and chasing down contacts, and widespread disinfecting, (not general lockdown, widespread testing is the right way to contain this, lockdowns are what you do when you don't have the reserve supplies that South Korea had in advance). NZ early lockdown means 5 days to double is not the same as the rest of the worlds, at least for now. Also, as % of infected people increase and the virus has trouble finding non-immune people, then the 5 days to double will no longer be accurate, (that fact is NOT in the later weeks of my yellow chart above, I don't know how to calculate that).

If you want to do this for your area:

Look for the first death in the area.
1. Go back 20 days to find the date he was infected, (20 from infection, not onset of symptoms).
2. Since it's 1%, then on that date there were 100 actual cases on the day the first death was infected.
3. Next, use the days to double rate of 5 days (China and Europe-it's holding true in the US), and count f day intervals from the first infection date, 100, 200, 400, 800...increasing every 5 days.

You can also know odds of running into an infected person by dividing the population of the area by actual number of cases.




* BTW, this is not only a Trump issue, Obama didn't give us the supplies, Bush didn't give us the supplies, and Biden as VP didn't give us the supplies, so Biden against Trump is also a no-win situation (unless you're in the top 1%).

It also would not surprise me if part of the motivation for our elected rulers not preparing for the next pandemic (there will be another one after this one for certain), is there is no money in it, and also since pandemics disproportionally affect old people who aren't in the work force earning money for the rich, they instead are a tax burdon, it may have been a non-motivation as if the old people will die, there will be lest taxes on the rich...older people, especially on western diet are a huge expensive burden, (inner city blacks too are getting sick, another non-motivation).




What the hell is going on in NZ, is it all lockdown maybe?

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 1:55 am 
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Location: >>==> Wellington New Zealand
NZ officially went into "level 4" lockdown at midnight on: March 25th, our boarders remained open with folks traveling from or via virus hot spots having to go into a 14 day self isolation
or quarantine.

That didn't work as anecdotally a number of these folks, despite the restrictions knowingly continued to travel about infecting people, and have been shown to be responsible for the
original bunch of clusters at a retirement village a college a wedding and a doctors office,
one selfish @#&% showed up for his scheduled surgery, forcing the whole surgical team into isolation.....

We're being told that all these people have now been tracked, traced and tested
the majority have gone into self isolation or been placed into quarantine,
as have the folks they came into contact with.....

The boarder restrictions were finally tightened right up around April the 6th or 7th,
now only kiwi citizens who can prove they have been in isolation for the magic
fourteen days prior to their arrival and agree to submit to mandatory self isolation
or quarantine for a further 14 days can gain entry.....

Most folks are obeying the lockdown rules, my only concern is that it will all be for naught
if the self entitled few that don't obey continue the spread.....

Now we wait for the government to reassess the lockdown and either lower the alert level or
extend the lockdown.....

__________________________________________________________________________

According to the man, NZ is now up to: 1,312 coronavirus cases

1,035 confirmed

277 probable

4 dead

422 recovered

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 1:39 pm 
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Location: >>==> Wellington New Zealand
Coronavirus: How Jacinda Ardern is using soft propaganda to beat Covid-19
Andrea Vance·05:00, April 12th, 2020.

The death toll in New Zealand rises to four after two older people with underlying conditions die in hospital.

OPINION: Go hard and go early.

It's our pandemic catchphrase. Buzzwords to sum up the collective effort to beat the novel coronavirus, Covid-19.

Jacinda Ardern repeats it over and over in her frequent press briefings. Our mission, pain, fight, stay the course and sacrifices. Other words that crop up regularly in the prime minister's addresses.

It's an iron fist, dressed up in velvety words.

In these extraordinary times, New Zealanders are being asked to do extraordinary things. Give up our freedoms, financial security, time with loved ones, and submit to digital surveillance and forced quarantine.

Jacinda Ardern has emphasised compassion and duty in her coronavirus pandemic messages.

The alternative to this was a devastating level of death. But these incursions on our liberty have not been seen before in peace time. Why did New Zealanders comply so readily, when other countries have struggled to implement restrictions?

A large part of that is political leadership.

Ardern is recognised as an excellent communicator, and her brand centres on positivity, kindness and empathy.

That helps: persistent messages of doom and gloom are not effective tools of mass persuasion.

But what she is asking of us is unpalatable, so the pill must be sugar-coated with unthreatening concepts like the bubble, the Easter Bunny and Nigel Latta (Nigel Latta is a local high profile psychologist).

The language and the message she uses would not be unfamiliar to war-time leaders.

This is being defined as our finest hour, when we sacrifice selfish desire and pull together for a common purpose and spirit. Our narrow and immediate self-interest has been subordinated for the greater good.

We are being asked to support a noble cause. This week, as the curve flattened, that has been reinforced. It is a noble - and successful - cause.

And, this is a home-front sacrifice. What better way to unite New Zealanders than compare them favourably with other unfortunate countries, struggling to contain their self-centred citizens. It must be true, the Washington Post said so.

Image
GETTY IMAGES
Kiwis have largely complied with a nationwide lockdown to stamp put Covid-19.

Ardern has decisively shaped the discourse and it is being echoed across the country, from newspaper editorials to celebrity social media posts and neighbourhood Facebook groups.

She is firmly in control of those conferences: even when faced with the blip of Health Minister David Clark's blundering disregard for lock-down rules.

But hey, whatever works. A little low-level propaganda is more favourable than police and military enforcement. It's definitely preferable to Covid-19 rampaging through the community.

And we can count our blessings. In the US, White House reporters have begun skipping President Donald Trump's briefings because his boasting, attacks on the press and rivals, and misinformative rants don't have enough news value to merit breaking social-distancing measures.

However, reassuring as these daily news conferences are, they don't substitute for truth and accountability.

Image
Office of the Prime Minister
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in her Beehive office. (NZ's parliament building is shaped like a beehive)

A lot of questions are going unanswered. Most pertinently there seems to be a huge gulf between these Beehive briefings and experiences of frontline health care workers over personal protective equipment, contact tracing and levels of testing.

It's still not clear why initial border controls were so haphazard and slow to be implemented.

These briefings give the appearance of effective and extensive communication and transparency in a time of crisis.

For the media and by extension the public, it's useful access to some of the decision makers and offers an up-to-date assessment of the numbers on the ground.

But it's unsatisfactory because, at present, it's really our only chance to ask questions. They can't be detailed, they can't contain specific answers, and they are rarely allowed to be followed up.

They concentrate all news-gathering from official sources into one narrow time-slot, and into the hands of a few figure heads. (And a narrow slice of media representation: the parliamentary press gallery).

As the government grapples with getting a grip on Covid-19, we can expect this imperfect flow of information to continue, for at least the period of Level Four.

So long as we stay alert and wary of how the message is being imparted and manipulated to influence our behaviour.

Sunday Star Times

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... at-covid19


Coronavirus: People continue to break lockdown rules as country hits 677 breaches
Mandy Te·17:10, April 11th, 2020.

Even with police ramping up their presence across the country, people continue to break lockdown rules.

At checkpoints over the Easter Weekend, officers stopped people who had planned to go on day walks in the bush and a search was almost sparked for a man who told a family member he was going fishing.

On Saturday, police said there had been a total of 677 breaches.

Since Alert level 4 restrictions began, there have also been 84 prosecutions and 582 warnings.

Police have asked people to stay home during the long weekend and prime minister Jacinda Ardern told people to have a "staycation" during Easter.

As of Saturday, four people have died from the virus in New Zealand.

On March the 28th, Anne Guenole died in Grey Base Hospital in Greymouth.

Image
Ross Giblin/Stuff
Since Alert level 4 restrictions began, there have been 677 breaches, 84 prosecutions and 582 warnings.

At the time, the Ministry of Health said Guenole was initially diagnosed with influenza complicated by an underlying health condition, but returned a positive test for Covid-19.

On Thursday April the 9th, a woman in her 90s died at Burwood hospital in Christchurch. She belonged to a cluster of cases connected to the Rosewood rest home.

At a press conference on Saturday, director of public health Dr Caroline McElnay said a man in his 80s had died in Wellington Hospital on Friday April the 10th.

He became unwell on March the 26th and was admitted to the hospital two days later.

The fourth person to die from coronavirus was a man in his 70s at Burwood Hospital. He was one of the cluster of virus cases from the Rosewood aged care facility.

As of Saturday, April the 11th, there have been 1312 cases of coronavirus in New Zealand.

The country is more than halfway through its level 4 lockdown.

​On Thursday, prime minister Jacinda Ardern said a decision on whether or not the lockdown would be extended on April the 20th - two days before the forecasted end date - would be publicised.

ALERT LEVEL 4 RULES

Police have recently released updated guidelines around Alert Level 4 rules.

- Everyone in New Zealand is to be isolated or quarantined at their current place of residence except as permitted for essential personal movement.

- Exercise is to be done in an outdoor place that can be readily accessed from home and two-metre physical distancing must be maintained.

- Recreation and exercise does not involve swimming, water-based activities (for example, surfing or boating), hunting, tramping, or other activities of a kind that expose participants to danger or may require search and rescue services.

- A child can leave the residence of one joint caregiver to visit or stay at the residence of another joint care-giver (and visit or stay at that residence) if there is a shared bubble arrangement.

- A person can leave their residence to visit or stay at another residence (and visit or stay at that residence) under a shared bubble arrangement if - one person lives alone in one, or both, of those residences; or everyone in one of those residences is a vulnerable person.

Stuff

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/ ... 7-breaches

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:06 pm 
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Shit your lock down seems tuff, were in lock down too but only handful have been fines and beer sales are way down...
We need more Beer :mrgreen:
Australia lockdown rules
Image
Quote:
NSW police officers patrol Rushcutters Bay park in Sydney on Wednesday 1 April. Australia’s coronavirus lockdown rules and restrictions come with hefty fines in some states – and seem to change daily. Can you visit your family or parents at Easter, or go for a drive over the long weekend?


As of Easter Saturday, April 11, the rules in place at a federal level are:

Quote:
No indoor or outdoor gatherings of more than two people unless you're all part of the same household
People should not leave their house except for essential reasons: to shop for food or other essentials, attend work or education (if you can't do this from home), exercise, or for medical care or compassionate needs
Some state borders are closed except for people with exemptions for essential travel
There can be a maximum of one visitor (not a member of your household) to your home — but some states are taking a less strict approach to this rule
People must maintain a 1.5-metre distance from each other if they are in contact with members outside their household (ie. going to the shops, the workplace, out for exercise)
Many non-essential venues are now closed to the public. Restaurants and cafes are only allowed to offer take away or home delivery, while pubs, gyms, cinemas, casinos and places of worship are closed. Some non-essential retailers are still allowed to be open as long as they comply with social distancing measures
All travellers arriving in Australia must go into 14 days of self-isolation at a designated quarantine facility


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:12 pm 
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Location: >>==> Wellington New Zealand
Melania Trump wrote:
Shit your lock down seems tuff, were in lock down too but only handful have been fines and beer sales are way down...
We need more Beer :mrgreen:
Australia lockdown rules
Image
Quote:
NSW police officers patrol Rushcutters Bay park in Sydney on Wednesday 1 April. Australia’s coronavirus lockdown rules and restrictions come with hefty fines in some states – and seem to change daily. Can you visit your family or parents at Easter, or go for a drive over the long weekend?


As of Easter Saturday, April 11, the rules in place at a federal level are:

Quote:
No indoor or outdoor gatherings of more than two people unless you're all part of the same household
People should not leave their house except for essential reasons: to shop for food or other essentials, attend work or education (if you can't do this from home), exercise, or for medical care or compassionate needs
Some state borders are closed except for people with exemptions for essential travel
There can be a maximum of one visitor (not a member of your household) to your home — but some states are taking a less strict approach to this rule
People must maintain a 1.5-metre distance from each other if they are in contact with members outside their household (ie. going to the shops, the workplace, out for exercise)
Many non-essential venues are now closed to the public. Restaurants and cafes are only allowed to offer take away or home delivery, while pubs, gyms, cinemas, casinos and places of worship are closed. Some non-essential retailers are still allowed to be open as long as they comply with social distancing measures
All travellers arriving in Australia must go into 14 days of self-isolation at a designated quarantine facility


Beer is essential :lol:

Thankfully we're all stocked up on the beverage front.....

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:43 pm 
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Location: Eastern CT coast
Image


Is that like a combination Police - Ice Cream truck?

Can you get beer there?

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