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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 2:16 pm 
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Is this the highest Holland has gotten in recent times? I don't think I ever remember them even making it to the finals. Either way it's nice to see a new face in the top instead of the same 3 or 4 teams.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 11:41 pm 
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Huck_Phlem wrote:
Is this the highest Holland has gotten in recent times? I don't think I ever remember them even making it to the finals. Either way it's nice to see a new face in the top instead of the same 3 or 4 teams.


We've endured two lost World Cup finals. (of course, not me since it's prehistorical to me), in the Johan Cruijff era. They were 1974 (West-Germany) and 1978 (Argentina). I think in the West-Germany one was the first penalty in a World Cup final ever, and it was put to good use by Johan Neeskens, but Netherlands lost 1-3 anyway.

@GreenGenes: No but I have seen Loaded Weapon. Does that count?

(singing)Heb je al gehoord van de zilveren vloot, de zilvervloot van Spanje...

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 1:25 am 
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Oops, yeah, that might be the one Image

Now, I can't decide if i post this one here or in the Weird News thread. Have you ever heard about Paul, the psychic octopus?

Why Paul the Octopus was right

It is rather interesting to see the two year old Paul the Octopus get all his predictions right. His prediction skills have reached an unprecedented high with the latest correct prediction of Spain beating Germany in the second semi-final.


Image

While analysts have gone to town trying to explain Paul's prediction skills, it is essentially simple mathematical probability or chance at work and nothing beyond that.

Let us try and understand this through a simple coin tossing exercise. When a coin is tossed there are essentially two outcomes possible, heads or tails. Given this the chance of a coin landing a head (or a tail for that matter) is ½ or 0.5, every time a coin is tossed.

So if the coin is tossed twice what is the probability of the coin landing a head (or a tail) twice? The answer is very simple. The probability is ¼ or 0.25 ( .5 x .5). Or there is a 25% chance that the coin will land head two times in a row.

Similarly if the coin is tossed five times, what is the probability of the coin landing head (or tails for that matter) five times in a row? 0.03125 (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5). Or there is a 3.125% chance the coin will land head five times in a row.

Now what is the probability that the coin will land a head ten times in a row? 0.0009765625 or there is 0.098% chance of the coin landing head ten times in a row.

So what does this coin tossing experiment tell us? There is a chance of the coin landing head constantly all the time, even though the probability of it landing head over and over keeps going down, as the number of coin tosses increase.

Similar is the case with the predictions of Paul the Octopus. Every match has two results since we are in the knockout stage. Either of the two teams can win. So the probability of

Paul the Octopus getting the prediction of an individual match right is 0.5.

Now Paul has predicted the results of six matches correctly for Germany? Now what is the probability of getting the results of six matches right? The answer is 1.5625%, which is a rather small probability, but is a probability none the less.

So Paul is no oracle, it's just a matter of chance that he has got things right, till now. This phenomenon can be observed in various other facets of life. John Allen Paulos in his rather engaging book A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market gives the example of e of a stock newsletter scam wherein the publisher sends out the newsletter each week predicting the way a common stock market index (like the Sensex or the Nifty) will go. In the first week, the newsletter is sent out to 64,000 people, picked up randomly. To half of these people, the newsletter predicts that the index will go up and to the other half the newsletter predicts that the index will go down. Whatever happens to the index by the end of the week, 32,000 people would have received a correct prediction. The same process would be repeated again, but this time with the half which got the newsletter with the correct prediction. So 16,000 people will get a newsletter predicting the rise of the index and to the rest the newsletter predicting the fall of the index.

This process will be repeated a few times more. By the end of the sixth week, 1000 people would have got correct predictions for six consecutive weeks. To these people another letter would go, pointing out the good performance of the newsletter. And from now on if the individuals wanted to continue getting the newsletter, they would need to pay for it.

The phenomenon of Paul getting his predictions right is just the same. Nassem Nicholas Taleb, in his book Fooled by Randomness which he wrote before he became famous for writing The Black Swan, explains this phenomenon brilliantly.

He says, "If one puts an infinite number of monkeys in front of (strongly built) typewriters, and lets them clap away, there is a certainty that one of them would come out with an exact version of the Iliad".Having said this, Taleb asks "Now that we have found that hero among monkeys, would any reader invest his life's savings on a bet that the monkey would write the Oddessey next?"

Calls for killing Paul the Octopus have already begun in Germany, for predicting Germany's loss to Spain correctly. I just hope, Germans turn vegetarians for a while.

http://www.dnaindia.com/blogs/post.php?postid=288

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:07 am 
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Maybe they recorded him "predicting" either result and only released the correct video each time. Has any of his predictions been shown before the fact?
(That loaded weapon was a joke. There are several "Lethal Weapon" movies, and then National Lampoon made a spoof called Loaded Weapon 1. )

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 4:35 pm 
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Mr_Green_Genes wrote:
Who will you cheer for Lumpy, since Sweden didn't even make it for the tournament, and the US was spanked by Ghana?
well, I'll cheer for the netherlands.
a country which, in my opinion, always have played a great soccer, and really deserve to win (after, having lost two finals in the 70s).

I never expected the usa to make it very far. they still have a long way to go.

and, yeah, sweden didn't even make it to the cup. thank you for pointing that out. denmark beat us to it. I don't think sweden would have made it very far, anyway. we're not that good right now.

BBP wrote:
We've endured two lost World Cup finals. (of course, not me since it's prehistorical to me), in the Johan Cruijff era. They were 1974 (West-Germany) and 1978 (Argentina). I think in the West-Germany one was the first penalty in a World Cup final ever, and it was put to good use by Johan Neeskens, but Netherlands lost 1-3 anyway.
but, this time you'll win! 8)

Mr_Green_Genes wrote:
Only a miracle will keep Germany away from the Cup now.
well, your crystal ball didn't work this time...

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Last edited by Lumpy Gravy on Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 4:41 pm 
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I'll root for the Netherlands. I'm still not going to watch it, though.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:04 pm 
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Mr_Green_Genes wrote:
Nassem Nicholas Taleb, in his book Fooled by Randomness which he wrote before he became famous for writing The Black Swan, explains this phenomenon brilliantly.


I have a psychic laundry, which leads me to believe that perhaps other less obvious factors could have a bearing on some of this stuff....

For years, ONLY whenever it is about to rain, my laundry door sticks and the tap drips. Never at any other time. This pattern ALWAYS happens exactly the same, and it doesn't matter whether it has been only days or several months since the last downpour.
Come to think of it, maybe the huntsman spiders are psychic too, as they always come inside about 24 hours before rain...whether the sky is overcast or sunny. You can get a rough idea how big the fall will be by the number of spiders...1 spider - the garden get will get well watered, 2 - bring in enough firewood to last a couple of days, 3+ - get to town and stock up on food because the creeks/bridges are going to flood and you won't be able to get to town (or to work :mrgreen: ) for days.
We used to watch the ants build up their nests days before rain in 'junior school'.
Don't guitar/piano strings vibrate 'in sympathy' even though we can't hear it..and our vocal chords..etc..


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:29 pm 
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Lumpy Gravy wrote:

Mr_Green_Genes wrote:
Only a miracle will keep Germany away from the Cup now.
well, your crystal ball didn't work this time...


Nope, my crystal ball was just clear and right: the miracle was called Spain...Image

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 11:42 am 
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calvin2hikers wrote:
My_Name_Is_Fritz wrote:
YEEEEEHAAAAW


Great. I guess I'll root for them for you, Fritz. (I won't watch any of it though)


Quote:
I'll root for the Netherlands. I'm still not going to watch it, though.


Okay, there's no doubt that Spain will take the cup.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:23 pm 
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BBP wrote:
Maybe they recorded him "predicting" either result and only released the correct video each time. Has any of his predictions been shown before the fact?
(That loaded weapon was a joke. There are several "Lethal Weapon" movies, and then National Lampoon made a spoof called Loaded Weapon 1. )

Uh-oh! Paul predicted that Spain will win. This will serve as a hypothesis test...

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:17 pm 
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Not only Paul, Calvin the oracle predicted Spain as World Champion, too.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:57 pm 
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The tension builds up... :D

Make your bets:

Holland 2 - 0 Spain

or

'Psychic' octopus backs Spain to win World Cup

Friday, July 9, 2010


Football fans in Spain were rejoicing on Friday after an octopus called Paul predicted the European nation will win the 2010 FIFA World Cup. The octopus, who lives in an aquarium in Oberhausen, in western Germany, has so far correctly forecast who will win every World Cup game involving the German side. Paul also predicted that the German team will beat Uruguay in Saturday's match for third place.

The octopus has become something of a celebrity during the World Cup, as all six of his predictions for Germany's World Cup games proved accurate. His final prediction, for Sunday's final between Spain and the Netherlands, was broadcast live on television. The eight-legged sea creature was given two boxes to choose from - one marked with a flag from the Netherlands and another with the flag of Spain. In the end it was the Spanish flag he went for.

Rupert Adams of William Hill, one of Britain's largest bookmakers, said that the octopus's success rate is remarkable.

"If you had had ten pounds on each and every prediction then re-invested your winnings you would currently have over 1,450 pounds," said Adams. "It's an astonishing feat to get six predictions in a row. I am told people are walking into our shops and saying 'I will have what the Octopus predicted.'"

But David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge, was less convinced of the animal's abilities, pointing out that many other creatures failed to predict the correct outcomes of matches and went unreported.

"It's like seeing footage of a golfer getting a hole-in-one," Spiegelhalter said. "We're not seeing the millions of times the golfer made the shot and it didn't go in."

At least one other animal has weighed in on the World Cup final. Mani, a 13 year old parakeet from Singapore, allegedly correctly predicted the results of the four quarter-final matches, and also Spain's semi-final victory over Germany. The parakeet apparently thinks that the Netherlands will defeat Spain in the final.

Which of the supposed oracles is correct remains to be seen. The final takes place on Sunday in Johannesburg, South Africa.

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http://en.wikinews.org/wiki/'Psychic'_octopus_backs_Spain_to_win_World_Cup

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 Post subject: re: the world cup draw
PostPosted: Sat Jul 10, 2010 8:49 am 
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. tie
Image Image
.1 - 1




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juke me, baby

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 10, 2010 9:44 am 
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Holland 28 Spain 21


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 10, 2010 10:11 am 
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Is it over yet?

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 10, 2010 10:29 am 
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Right now Uruguay - Germany. Final will be tomorrow.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 10, 2010 10:50 am 
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Huck_Phlem wrote:
Is it over yet?

Well, you could have been an unfortunate soul who bought a ticket to see DZPZ on BosPop tomorrow, only to find the schedule has been shrinked so that there is room to watch the World Cup final.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 10, 2010 4:24 pm 
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Mr_Green_Genes wrote:
Only a miracle will keep Germany away from the Cup now.
Lumpy Gravy wrote:
well, your crystal ball didn't work this time...
Mr_Green_Genes wrote:
Nope, my crystal ball was just clear and right: the miracle was called Spain...Image
you call spain a miracle...?
a boring, defensive, low-scoring team... I'm sorry for germany. they were the better team.

My_Name_Is_Fritz wrote:
Right now Uruguay - Germany.
well, congrats on the bronze, fritz. 8)

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 11, 2010 12:25 pm 
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90 minutes in... this match is BORING. I should watch, it's history and my grandchildren wouldn't forgive me if I just go to bed, but... oh boy... the sweet embrace of my cushions sounds ever so tempting...

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 11, 2010 2:21 pm 
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BBP wrote:
90 minutes in... this match is BORING. I should watch, it's history and my grandchildren wouldn't forgive me if I just go to bed, but... oh boy... the sweet embrace of my cushions sounds ever so tempting...


Sorry about the outcome.


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 Post subject: re: the world wank
PostPosted: Sun Jul 11, 2010 2:44 pm 
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 11, 2010 5:13 pm 
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BBP wrote:
90 minutes in... this match is BORING. I should watch, it's history and my grandchildren wouldn't forgive me if I just go to bed, but... oh boy... the sweet embrace of my cushions sounds ever so tempting...



Soccer is boring period! So is basketball.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 12, 2010 4:50 am 
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Well deserved win for Spain. Nice to see that those who can actually play with a ball can win the World Cup (Iniesta is a master). Holland was surprisingly destructive and in a very violent manner. They were lucky they did not get more men sent off. If they had won, it would have been a shame for the sport (and it surprised me as they have some excellent players - except van Bommel who is just a vicious guy: Holland's answer to Materazzi).

Congrats to the Spanish (do we have anyone here?)!

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 12, 2010 5:30 am 
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Yeah, Spain were the better team, and played the best football. Shame the dutch tried to kick 'em off the pitch. I thought they were better then that, and the Final deserved a better match.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 12, 2010 9:27 am 
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I was wrong, Paul was right... It's a miracle...

It's a shame slimy's Clockwork Orange Zappa will have to hold his commemoration scream a bit further...

I thought the final match was more like to a amateur regional community field tournament than for World Cup (semi-kidding). I mean, with all the missed scoring opportunities even I could have scored...

But it is good, so the Bonny's and Spanish fellows can feel the drama, the agony of a World Cup final...

Congrats all Spanish Zappa fans around the world!

It will come around again in 2014. You are all invited!

Huck_Phlem wrote:
Soccer is boring period! So is basketball.

Boring as opposed to Baseball? To US "Football" (a game played mainly with the hands)? No offence, for the fans of these sports, 'each monkey on it's own branch'. But a bit of a paradox rises when you take into account that, by far, true Football is the most popular sport on Earth, transcending boundaries, religions, social classes and more...

WORLD CUP 2010 - ALL GOALS

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