Zappa.com

The Official Frank Zappa Messageboards
It is currently Tue May 26, 2020 7:12 pm

All times are UTC - 8 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 98 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:44 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 2:41 pm
Posts: 16784
Trump is going to win in a landslide. Biden has been virtually non-existent since the pandemic started, and Trump gets the media everyday. If it's a Biden strategy, it's a dumb one.

I guess this is going to make 2 presidential elections in a row where I voted for the loser. (But I voted for Perot too, so what do I know.) :)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:04 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2005 7:51 pm
Posts: 37121
Location: >>==> Wellington New Zealand
Who are Putin and Jinping voting for?

But seriously, where are the younger candidates,
it's doubtful that either of the elderly Democrat meat puppets
could/can survive the campaign, let alone oust Trump.....

_________________
hey punk where you going with that golf club in your hand, again.....


Last edited by Gray_Ghost on Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:15 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 2:41 pm
Posts: 16784
Gray_Ghost wrote:
Who are Putin and Jinping voting for?


Perhaps you can ask my Facebook friends who think Trump is nothing short of the next coming and don't hesitate to share any dumb false shit about Donnie.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:22 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2005 7:51 pm
Posts: 37121
Location: >>==> Wellington New Zealand
calvin2hikers wrote:
Gray_Ghost wrote:
Who are Putin and Jinping voting for?


Perhaps you can ask my Facebook friends who think Trump is nothing short of the next coming and don't hesitate to share any dumb false shit about Donnie.


I despair at what the world will look like after another four years of Trump.....

The only plus is that he can't run for a third term, unless he changes the rules
as Putin is about to do.....

_________________
hey punk where you going with that golf club in your hand, again.....


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:53 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:19 am
Posts: 6948
Location: Eastern CT coast
Gray_Ghost wrote:

But seriously, where are the younger candidates,


They're not the preferred candidates, they get shuffled out of view.
Out of sight, out of mind.

_________________
.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:28 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2005 7:51 pm
Posts: 37121
Location: >>==> Wellington New Zealand
baddy wrote:
Gray_Ghost wrote:

But seriously, where are the younger candidates,


They're not the preferred candidates, they get shuffled out of view.
Out of sight, out of mind.


She would have to be better than th' Donald.....

_________________
hey punk where you going with that golf club in your hand, again.....


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:18 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Dec 08, 2010 7:19 pm
Posts: 592
Location: USA
The virus gave Trump a couple of percent bump in the early part, but it is gone now
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/

Coronavirus and the 1200 check are of interest, but Trump is now boring. He failed to lead. he let it 30 000 people flying in from China after he himself "blocked" that travel.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:01 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 7479
Location: Over there! (last)
The General-Election Map Is Live Today

Daily updated based on an aggregate of state by state polls… 8)

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 310 electoral votes
Trump - 228 electoral votes
Ties --- 0

Strong Dem (199)
Likely Dem (16)
Barely Dem (95)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely GOP (80)
Likely GOP (31)
Strong GOP (117)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - New Hampshire (4)

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.

The primary season is effectively over, at least for the presidential nominations, although there are a number of senatorial primaries yet to come.

The state polling data are a bit sparse but will no doubt pick up over time. So for Texas, for example, four polls were averaged to get the result, but the most recent one is from March 2, so they are all pretty old. Of course, if Texas looks like it will be close, there will be Texas polling out the wazoo, since there is no way Donald Trump can lose Texas and win the election. The only way Joe Biden could win Texas is if the oil industry totally collapses, with millions of Texans put out of work and very unhappy. That said, given what crude oil futures are trading at right now, this is not impossible.

THE SENATE

Senate
Dem - 47 seats
GOP - 53 seats

Strong Dem (44)
Likely Dem (0)
Barely Dem (3)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely GOP (2)
Likely GOP (4)
Strong GOP (47)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - None
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - None

The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (counting the two independents as Democrats):

12 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2020 and 35 seats not up, for a total of 47 seats
22 Republican seats up for reelection in 2020 and 31 seats not up, for a total of 53 seats

In a reversal from 2018, the Republicans will be playing defense, with many more seats up than the Democrats. The good news for the GOP is that most of these are in deep red states and are considered safe.

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.
States that are entirely gray have no senatorial race this year.

http://www.electoral-vote.com


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:20 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:19 am
Posts: 6948
Location: Eastern CT coast
We can measure the dopes a whole lot better than we can measure the coronavirus :(

_________________
.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:33 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:19 am
Posts: 6948
Location: Eastern CT coast
Image

Hi :)

_________________
.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:13 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 7479
Location: Over there! (last)
Today's Presidential Polls

State Biden Trump Start End Pollster
Michigan 46% 38% Apr 15 Apr 20 Ipsos
Michigan 49% 41% Apr 18 Apr 21 Fox News
Michigan 51% 44% Apr 20 Apr 21 PPP
North Carolina 49% 46% Apr 20 Apr 21 PPP
New Jersey 54% 38% Apr 16 Apr 19 Monmouth U.
Pennsylvania 46% 40% Apr 15 Apr 20 Ipsos
Pennsylvania 50% 42% Apr 18 Apr 21 Fox News
Pennsylvania 51% 44% Apr 20 Apr 21 PPP
Wisconsin 43% 40% Apr 15 Apr 20 Ipsos
Wisconsin 50% 45% Apr 20 Apr 21 PPP

The very first version of the map, posted yesterday, had Pennsylvania as barely Republican. That's what the (somewhat stale) numbers were saying. Joe Biden is a local son, and if there's any 2016 red state he should be able to flip, given his political program and image, that's the one. Three new polls from the Keystone State show him ahead.

Daily updated based on an aggregate of state by state polls… 8)

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 330 electoral votes (+20 since yesterday)
Trump - 208 electoral votes (-20 since yesterday)
Ties --- 0 (no change)

Strong Dem (199) (no change)
Likely Dem (52) (+36 since yesterday)
Barely Dem (79) (-16 since yesterday)
Exactly tied (0) (no change)
Barely GOP (60) (-20 since yesterday)
Likely GOP (31) (no change)
Strong GOP (117) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - New Hampshire (4)

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.

THE SENATE (no change)

Senate
Dem - 47 seats
GOP - 53 seats

Strong Dem (44)
Likely Dem (0)
Barely Dem (3)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely GOP (2)
Likely GOP (4)
Strong GOP (47)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - None
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - None

The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (counting the two independents as Democrats):

12 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2020 and 35 seats not up, for a total of 47 seats
22 Republican seats up for reelection in 2020 and 31 seats not up, for a total of 53 seats

In a reversal from 2018, the Republicans will be playing defense, with many more seats up than the Democrats. The good news for the GOP is that most of these are in deep red states and are considered safe.

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.
States that are entirely gray have no senatorial race this year.

http://www.electoral-vote.com


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:45 pm 
Offline

Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2008 9:56 am
Posts: 221
calvin2hikers wrote:
Trump is going to win in a landslide. Biden has been virtually non-existent since the pandemic started, and Trump gets the media everyday. If it's a Biden strategy, it's a dumb one.

I guess this is going to make 2 presidential elections in a row where I voted for the loser. (But I voted for Perot too, so what do I know.) :)

Christ I hope ur wrong Cal, I think ur right, but i pray ur wrong. And I don't pray.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:23 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 7479
Location: Over there! (last)
Today's Presidential Polls

New Mexico (5) turns bluer, and Texas (38) turns redder. Florida remains barely blue.

State Biden Trump Start End Pollster
Florida 46% 43% Apr 18 Apr 21 Fox News
New Mexico 52% 40% Apr 20 Apr 21 PPP
Texas 44% 49% Apr 10 Apr 19 YouGov

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 330 electoral votes (no change)
Trump - 208 electoral votes (no change)
Ties --- 0 (no change)

Strong Dem (204) (+5 since yesterday)
Likely Dem (47) (-5 since yesterday)
Barely Dem (79) (no change)
Exactly tied (0) (no change)
Barely GOP (22) (-38 since yesterday)
Likely GOP (69) (+38 since yesterday)
Strong GOP (117) (no change)

Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:22 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 7479
Location: Over there! (last)
Today's Presidential Polls

New York (29) is a lock for Biden, and Ohio (18) barely turns blue.

State Biden Trump Start End Pollster
New York 65% 29% Apr 19 Apr 23 Siena Coll.
Ohio 45% 44% Apr 20 Apr 25 Baldwin Wallace U.

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 348 electoral votes (+18 since Saturday)
Trump - 190 electoral votes (-18 since Saturday)
Ties --- 0 (no change)

Strong Dem (204) (no change)
Likely Dem (47) (no change)
Barely Dem (97) (+18 since Saturday)
Exactly tied (0) (no change)
Barely GOP (4) (-18 since Saturday)
Likely GOP (69) (no change)
Strong GOP (117) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - New Hampshire (4)

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.
States that are entirely gray have no senatorial race this year.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:04 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 7479
Location: Over there! (last)
Today's Presidential Polls

That's three polls in a row in North Carolina (15) that have given the nod to Biden, and the lead is widening, such that it's (just) outside the margin of error in this latest poll.

Please note that despite Biden's 5-point lead in this poll, the map shows North Carolina as barely Democratic. Remember that the map is based on the average of the most recent poll (below) and all other polls within a week of the most recent one. In this case that includes a PPP poll taken a few days before the SurveyUSA poll. The PPP poll showed Biden ahead by 3 points. Thus his average lead is only 4 points.

The GOP was hoping to flip New Hampshire (4), which is mostly blue, but a bit swingy. One state that was most definitely not in the "kind of swingy" column was Texas (38). Everyone knows that due to demographic changes, Texas will probably one day become a purple state, but most observers were thinking 2028, not 2020. If the PPP poll is correct—and remember, this is just a single poll—and Texas is a statistical tie, Trump has plenty of reason to be yelling at Parscale. The last thing he needs is having to spend money defending Texas. Every penny spent advertising in Dallas is a penny he can't spend advertising in Phoenix or Milwaukee or Charlotte. Before breaking out the champagne or crying in your beer, as the case may be, let's wait for some more Texas polls before drawing any conclusions though.

State Biden Trump Start End Pollster
North Carolina 50% 45% Apr 23 Apr 26 SurveyUSA
New Hampshire 50% 42% Apr 23 Apr 27 St. Anselm College
Texas 47% 46% Apr 27 Apr 28 PPP

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 390 electoral votes (+42 since Tuesday)
Trump - 148 electoral votes (-42 since Tuesday)
Ties --- 0 (no change)

Strong Dem (204) (no change)
Likely Dem (51) (+4 since Tuesday)
Barely Dem (135) (+38 since Tuesday)
Exactly tied (0) (no change)
Barely GOP (0) (-4 since Tuesday)
Likely GOP (31) (-38 since Tuesday)
Strong GOP (117) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Texas (38), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.
States that are entirely gray have no senatorial race this year.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2020 11:02 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 7479
Location: Over there! (last)
Today's Presidential Polls

Another poll of Texas that has it as a toss-up. Pretty soon, if this keeps up, the Lone Star State is going to have to be added to the list of 2020 swing states.

State Biden Trump Start End Pollster
Michigan 50% 42% Apr 28 Apr 29 PPP
Georgia 44% 45% Apr 25 Apr 27 Cygnal
North Carolina 47% 40% Apr 27 Apr 28 Meredith College
Pennsylvania 49% 43% Apr 21 Apr 26 Harper Poll
Texas 43% 43% Apr 18 Apr 27 U. of Texas

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 352 electoral votes (-38 since Thursday)
Trump - 148 electoral votes (no change)
Ties --- 38 electoral votes (Texas) (+38 since Thursday)

Strong Dem (204) (no change)
Likely Dem (66) (+15 since Thursday)
Barely Dem (82) (-53 since Thursday)
Exactly tied (38) (+38 since Thursday)
Barely GOP (16) (+16 since Thursday)
Likely GOP (15) (-16 since Thursday)
Strong GOP (117) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.
States that are entirely gray have no senatorial race this year.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 12:31 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2005 7:51 pm
Posts: 37121
Location: >>==> Wellington New Zealand
Image

A Sick Man For A Sick Nation

_________________
hey punk where you going with that golf club in your hand, again.....


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2020 11:27 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 7479
Location: Over there! (last)
If the Election Were Held Today, Democrats Would Capture the Senate.
Meanwhile, Texas and Ohio shift back to Trump.


Latest Presidential Polls

State - Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
California 65% 35% May 08 May 09 Emerson Coll.
Colorado 53% 35% Apr 10 Apr 19 Montana State U.
Connecticut 56% 33% Apr 30 May 04 Quinnipiac U.
Iowa 46% 48% Apr 30 May 01 PPP
Massachusetts 58% 30% Apr 27 May 01 U. of Mass.
Massachusetts 67% 33% May 05 May 06 Emerson Coll.
Montana 40% 45% Apr 10 Apr 27 Montana State U.
New Jersey 54% 35% Apr 30 May 04 Quinnipiac U.
New York 55% 32% Apr 30 May 04 Quinnipiac U.
North Carolina 49% 46% May 02 May 04 Civiqs
Ohio 49% 51% May 08 May 10 Emerson Coll.
Texas 48% 52% May 08 May 10 Emerson Coll.

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 334 electoral votes (-18 since May 3)
Trump - 204 electoral votes (+56 since May 3)
Ties --- 0 (-38 since May 3)

Strong Dem (213) (+9 since May 3)
Likely Dem (66) (no change)
Barely Dem (55) (-27 since May 3)
Exactly tied (0) (-38 since May 3)
Barely GOP (78) (+62 since May 3)
Likely GOP (18) (+3 since May 3)
Strong GOP (108) (-9 since May 3)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.

THE SENATE (current breakdown 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats)

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

Senate
Dem - 51 seats (+4 since April 23)
GOP - 49 seats (-4 since April 23)

Strong Dem (44) (no change)
Likely Dem (4) (+4 since April 23)
Barely Dem (3) (no change)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely GOP (2) (no change)
Likely GOP (2) (-2 since April 23)
Strong GOP (45) (-2 since April 23)

Dem pickups vs. 2018 - Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Montana, North Carolina
GOP pickups vs. 2018 - Alabama

The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (counting the two independents as Democrats):

12 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2020 and 35 seats not up, for a total of 47 seats
22 Republican seats up for reelection in 2020 and 31 seats not up, for a total of 53 seats

In a reversal from 2018, the Republicans will be playing defense, with many more seats up than the Democrats. The good news for the GOP is that most of these are in deep red states and are considered safe.

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.
States that are entirely gray have no senatorial race this year.

http://www.electoral-vote.com


Last edited by Mr. Nice Guy on Mon May 18, 2020 4:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2020 7:09 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 7479
Location: Over there! (last)
Three different scenarios in which a third-party situation can influence an election, along with examples:

Close elections: This is the scenario that most people think of when they consider this particular question; a third-party candidate siphons votes from a major-party candidate, thus handing the election to the other major-party candidate. The clearest case of this is the election of 2000, where Ralph Nader's 92,000 votes in Florida almost certainly cost Al Gore the state (which George W. Bush won by 537 votes), and thus the election. If just 1% of Nader's supporters had voted for Gore, he would have become president. It's likely that 2016 is on the list, too, although it's not crystal-clear that Green Jill Stein siphoned more votes from Hillary Clinton than Libertarian Gary Johnson siphoned from Donald Trump. Interestingly, the election of 1960, widely considered the closest ever, is not an example. The third-party vote in that election unquestionably hurt the winner (John F. Kennedy) far more than the loser (Richard Nixon), as it cost JFK 14 Southern EVs that otherwise would have been his.

Splitting a party, to that party's detriment: If a party splits into two, and thus runs two candidates, it's pretty close to a guaranteed loss, so it doesn't happen very often. But it did happen in 1912, when Progressive Republican ex-president Theodore Roosevelt, unhappy with the performance of his protégé and more conservative successor William Howard Taft, decided to mount a campaign. Taft, as the sitting president, was in control of enough party machinery to deny TR the nomination, so the Rough Rider founded the "Bull Moose" Party and ran as its candidate. The Democrats were the minority party back then, but not so much a minority that they could not take advantage of the situation, and so Woodrow Wilson became only the second Democrat to win the White House since the Civil War, with Roosevelt finishing second, and Taft third.

The election of 1860 was long-considered to be another example of this, since the Democrats split into two factions that year, but more recent analyses make clear that Abraham Lincoln's advantage in the Northern states was so great that he would have won the election even if the Democrats had remained unified. All Abe really needed to do in that election, relative to the previous election, was flip Pennsylvania. That situation may sound familiar.

Splitting a party, to that party's benefit: This is a particularly unusual circumstance, but it's happened, at least once. In 1948, Southerners who felt Harry S. Truman wasn't quite, well, racist enough for their tastes rallied to the banner of Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond. The general assumption, while the election was underway, was that the loss of Southern votes would be fatal for Truman. In the end, though, Thomas Dewey did not defeat Truman, no matter what you might have read in the Chicago Daily Tribune. Anyhow, as it turns out, the defection of the Dixiecrats helped affirm Harry S.'s bona fides as a moderate and non-bigot, and so paved the way for many moderates, independents, and black voters (at least in the North and West) to vote for him, when those folks might otherwise have pulled the lever for Dewey or else stayed home.

This is not an exhaustive list, but it does cover the clearest examples. There are other third-party candidates that attracted sizable percentages of the vote, including Eugene V. Debs in 1908 and 1912, John Anderson in 1980, and Ross Perot in 1992, but the general consensus is that they did not swing the result.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2020 11:16 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 7479
Location: Over there! (last)
Amash Bows Out

A couple of weeks ago, Rep. Justin Amash (L-MI) said that he was launching an exploratory committee for an all-but-certain bid for the Libertarian Party's presidential nomination. Apparently, the committee did its exploring, and reported back that the Representative would not, in fact, be able to smash the foundations of American government as we know them, remaking the country into an Ayn Randian Objectivist paradise. So, the Representative decided he's not interested, and announced that his campaign is over before it ever started.

This does not mean that Amash has fully resumed contact with reality, though. In his good-bye tweets, he declared that "The Libertarian Party is well positioned to become a major and consistent contender to win elections at all levels of government." This conclusion is not supported by any available evidence, particularly given that the Party has never elected someone to federal or statewide office (Amash switched earlier this month, well after being elected). It was unclear if Amash was going to steal more voters from Donald Trump or from Joe Biden; there were arguments for both sides of that. Now, it's a moot point.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/16/politics/justin-amash-will-not-run-president/index.html


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2020 4:56 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 7479
Location: Over there! (last)
North Carolina shifts from Biden to tied.

Latest Presidential Polls

State - Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Florida 53% 47% May 08 May 12 Florida Atlantic U.
New Jersey 56% 33% Apr 22 May 02 Rutgers-Eagleton
North Carolina 43% 46% May 07 May 09 East Carolina University
Wisconsin 46% 43% May 03 May 07 Marquette Law School

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 319 electoral votes (-15 since May 12)
Trump - 204 electoral votes (no change)
Ties --- 15 (+15 since May 12) North Carolina (15)

Strong Dem (213) (no change)
Likely Dem (80) (+14 since May 12)
Barely Dem (26) (-29 since May 12)
Exactly tied (15) (+15 since May 12)
Barely GOP (78) (no change)
Likely GOP (18) (no change)
Strong GOP (108) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 5:47 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 7479
Location: Over there! (last)
Georgia flips from Trump to Biden.

Latest Presidential Polls

State - Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Arizona 50% 43% May 09 May 11 OH Predictive Insights
Colorado 53% 40% May 07 May 11 Global Strategy
Georgia 48% 47% May 16 May 18 Civiqs
Tennessee 36% 53% Apr 22 May 01 East Tennessee State U.
Virginia 51% 39% May 03 May 16 Roanoke Coll

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 335 electoral votes (+16 since May 18)
Trump - 188 electoral votes (-16 since May 18)
Ties --- 15 (no change)

Strong Dem (213) (no change)
Likely Dem (80) (no change)
Barely Dem (42) (+16 since May 18)
Exactly tied (15) (no change)
Barely GOP (62) (-16 since May 18)
Likely GOP (18) (no change)
Strong GOP (108) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 7:52 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:18 pm
Posts: 7479
Location: Over there! (last)
North Carolina shifts from tied to Biden. Wisconsin grows bluer.

Latest Presidential Polls

State - Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Arizona 45% 41% May 10 May 14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies
California 58% 30% May 18 May 19 SurveyUSA
Florida 45% 43% May 10 May 14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Kentucky 39% 55% May 14 May 15 PPP
Michigan 47% 39% May 10 May 14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Michigan 51% 45% May 18 May 19 PPP
North Carolina 42% 42% May 12 May 21 Neighborhood Research and Media
North Carolina 45% 43% May 10 May 14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Pennsylvania 48% 39% May 10 May 14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Washington 57% 31% May 16 May 19 SurveyUSA
Wisconsin 48% 38% May 10 May 14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 350 electoral votes (+15 since May 20)
Trump - 188 electoral votes (no change)
Ties --- 0 (-15 since May 20)

Strong Dem (223) (+10 since May 20)
Likely Dem (51) (-29 since May 20)
Barely Dem (76) (+34 since May 20)
Exactly tied (0) (-15 since May 20)
Barely GOP (62) (no change)
Likely GOP (18) (no change)
Strong GOP (108) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 98 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4

All times are UTC - 8 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Melania Trump and 3 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group