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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:45 am 
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Democrats Strengthen Grip On The Senate.
Meanwhile, Texas shifts back to Tied.


Latest Presidential Polls

State - Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Iowa -- 47% --- 48% -- Jun 03 - Jun 04 - PPP
Texas - 48% --- 48% -- Jun 03 - Jun 04 - PPP

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 368 electoral votes (no change)
Trump - 132 electoral votes (-38 since yesterday)
Ties --- 38 (+38 since yesterday) Texas (38)

Strong Dem (213) (no change)
Likely Dem (60) (no change)
Barely Dem (95) (no change)
Exactly tied (38) (+38 since yesterday)
Barely GOP (22) (-38 since yesterday)
Likely GOP (3) (no change)
Strong GOP (107) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.

THE SENATE (current breakdown 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats)

Today's Senate Poll

State - Democrat - D % - Republican - R % - Start - End - Pollster
Iowa - Theresa Greenfield 45% - Joni Ernst* 43% - Jun 03 - Jun 04 - PPP
* Denotes incumbent

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

Senate
Dem - 51 seats (+1 since yesterday)
GOP - 47 seats (-1 since yesterday)
Tied - 2 seats (no change) North Carolina, South Carolina

Strong Dem (45) (no change)
Likely Dem (3) (no change)
Barely Dem (3) (+1 since yesterday)
Exactly tied (2) (no change)
Barely GOP (1) (-1 since yesterday)
Likely GOP (3) (no change)
Strong GOP (43) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2018 - Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana
GOP pickups vs. 2018 - Alabama

The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (counting the two independents as Democrats):

12 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2020 and 35 seats not up, for a total of 47 seats
22 Republican seats up for reelection in 2020 and 31 seats not up, for a total of 53 seats

In a reversal from 2018, the Republicans will be playing defense, with many more seats up than the Democrats. The good news for the GOP is that most of these are in deep red states and are considered safe.

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.
States that are entirely gray have no senatorial race this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:08 am 
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Amy McGrath now leads Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.

Mitch McConnell's approval ratings at home are dismal, in part because he has a lousy image (shady, corrupt) and in part because he spends his time on things other than attending to the needs of Kentuckians. In particular, he is very attent to the desires of wealthy Republican donors who want tax cuts and then more tax cuts, something of little use to most Kentuckians. Kentucky ranks as the nation's seventh poorest state, with only Alabama, Louisiana, New Mexico, Arkansas, Mississippi, and West Virginia being worse off. Tax cuts for people who own Kentucky Derby winning horses isn't a priority for most of them. It was possible that he could be vulnerable to a strong opponent this year, and now, he may actually be in some danger.

Latest Senate Polls

State - Democrat - D % - Republican - R % - Start - End - Pollster
Kentucky Amy McGrath 41% Mitch McConnell* 40% May 21 May 24 RMG Research
Michigan Gary Peters* 51% John James 36% May 30 Jun 03 EPIC-MRA
* Denotes incumbent

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

Senate
Dem - 52 seats (+1 since Saturday)
GOP - 46 seats (-1 since Saturday)
Tied - 2 seats (no change) North Carolina, South Carolina

Strong Dem (46) (+1 since Saturday)
Likely Dem (2) (-1 since Saturday)
Barely Dem (4) (+1 since Saturday)
Exactly tied (2) (no change)
Barely GOP (1) (no change)
Likely GOP (3) (no change)
Strong GOP (42) (-1 since Saturday)

Dem pickups vs. 2018 - Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Montana
GOP pickups vs. 2018 - Alabama

The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (counting the two independents as Democrats):

12 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2020 and 35 seats not up, for a total of 47 seats
22 Republican seats up for reelection in 2020 and 31 seats not up, for a total of 53 seats

In a reversal from 2018, the Republicans will be playing defense, with many more seats up than the Democrats. The good news for the GOP is that most of these are in deep red states and are considered safe.

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.
States that are entirely gray have no senatorial race this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:11 am 
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Iowa shifts from Trump to Tied. Michigan further solidifies around Biden.

Two polls in a row that say Iowa is most definitely in play.

Meanwhile, Michigan has entered "lost cause" territory for the President's campaign. There have been 19 polls, and Trump hasn't led any of them.

Good news for Trump in Tennessee, though, right? Maybe, maybe not. It's nice to have a 9-point margin. On the other hand, he won that state by 26 in 2016. It's not so nice to have a 17-point slide.

Latest Presidential Polls

State - Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Iowa 46% 46% Jun 06 Jun 08 Civiqs
Kentucky 36% 53% May 21 May 24 RMG Research
Michigan 53% 41% May 30 Jun 03 EPIC-MRA
Michigan 50% 35% May 31 Jun 07 Kiaer Research

Oklahoma 36% 55% Jun 03 Jun 04 Amber Integrated
Tennessee 42% 51% May 05 May 22 SSRS


Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 368 electoral votes (no change)
Trump - 126 electoral votes (-6 since Saturday)
Ties ---- 44 electoral votes (+6 since Saturday) Iowa, (6), Texas (38)

Strong Dem (229) (+16 since Saturday)
Likely Dem (44) (-16 since Saturday)
Barely Dem (95) (no change)
Exactly tied (44) (+6 since Saturday)
Barely GOP (16) (-6 since Saturday)
Likely GOP (14) (+11 since Saturday)
Strong GOP (96) (-11 since Saturday)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:28 am 
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Georgia flips back to Trump.

If the Democrats could choose just one between Georgia and Florida, one wonders which they would pick. Florida has considerably more EVs, of course, and its loss would be fatal to Donald Trump's reelection bid. On the other hand, if Georgia flips, it almost certainly means that Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin also flipped, giving Joe Biden the victory. And a blue Georgia might just deliver one or two new Democratic senators. That is not a completely academic question. The Biden campaign and the DSCC have to decide where to spend their money. Every dollar spent in Georgia is a dollar that could have been spent in Florida, and vice versa.

Latest Presidential Polls

State - Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Florida -- 47% - 44% - May 18 - May 30 - Cygnal
Georgia - 40% - 44% - May 21 - May 27 - TargetSmart

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 352 electoral votes (-16 since Wednesday)
Trump - 142 electoral votes (+16 since Wednesday)
Ties ---- 44 electoral votes (no change) Iowa, (6), Texas (38)

Strong Dem (229) (no change)
Likely Dem (44) (no change)
Barely Dem (79) (-16 since Wednesday)
Exactly tied (44) (no change)
Barely GOP (32) (+16 since Wednesday)
Likely GOP (14) (no change)
Strong GOP (96) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:30 am 
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Iowa shifts from tied back to Trump. Republican senator Joni Ernst falling behind.

Clearly, this Senate seat really is in play. Ticket splitting is rare these days, so if Ernst is in for a close race, so is Trump.

Latest Senate Poll

State - Democrat - D % - Republican - R % - Start - End - Pollster
Iowa - Theresa Greenfield - 46 - Joni Ernst* - 43% - Jun 07 - Jun 10 - Selzer
* Denotes incumbent

Here is the presidential poll from Ann Selzer. She had Trump up by 10 right before COVID-19 hit; now he's up by 1. Clearly, Iowa is in play this year, and Trump and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) will rise and fall together

Latest Presidential Polls

State - Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Arkansas - 45% - 47% - Jun 09 - Jun 10 - Hendrix Coll.
Iowa ----- 43% - 44% - Jun 07 - Jun 10 - Selzer

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 352 electoral votes (no change)
Trump - 148 electoral votes (+6 since Friday)
Ties ---- 38 electoral votes (-6 since Friday) Texas (38)

Strong Dem (229) (no change)
Likely Dem (44) (no change)
Barely Dem (79) (no change)
Exactly tied (38) (-6 since Friday)
Barely GOP (44) (+12 since Friday)
Likely GOP (14) (no change)
Strong GOP (90) (-6 since Friday)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:55 am 
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The polling in 2016 was not that far off, but even 5% off took it to Trump.

The thing I am most afraid of is all them libertarian Trumpists. They don't answer polls. Too intrusive. Better to blast your opinions on Twitter.


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:34 pm 
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Posts: 7045
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When people, teams, or organizations run into a wall,
they tend to do one of two things...
They do more of the same things,
or they do less of the same things,
but very seldom do we see them do different things instead.

If you look at the data, only about 3% are inclined to do different things,
the remaining 97% continues to smash into the wall.
-Paul Rulkens
From "Why the majority is always wrong."

Without deviation from the norm,
progress is not possible.
-Frank Zappa

:)

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Lesser-evilism is war.


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:00 pm 
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Georgia flips back to Biden.
One of Georgia's two senate races now leans Democratic.


Latest Presidential Polls

State - Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Arizona --- 49% - 45% - Jun 13 - Jun 15 - Civiqs
Georgia --- 48% - 46% - Jun 12 - Jun 13 - PPP
Michigan -- 55% - 39% - May 31 - Jun 04 - EPIC-MRA
New Mexico 53% - 39% - Jun 12 - Jun 13 - PPP


Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 368 electoral votes (+16 since yesterday)
Trump - 132 electoral votes (-16 since yesterday)
Ties --- 38 (no change) Texas (38)

Strong Dem (229) (no change)
Likely Dem (44) (no change)
Barely Dem (95) (+16 since yesterday)
Exactly tied (38) (no change)
Barely GOP (28) (-16 since yesterday)
Likely GOP (14) (no change)
Strong GOP (90) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.

THE SENATE (current breakdown 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats)

There have been eight polls of the Arizona Senate race this year. Mark Kelly has led all of them. His lead was within the margin of error just once, and that one poll was published back in early January. Since then, he's widened the gap a lot, and has had a double-digit lead in three of the last five polls. If Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) can't turn things around soon, the NRSC is going to cut her loose and leave her to her own devices. They really can't afford to lose the seat, but they also can't afford to throw millions down a rabbit hole, particularly when they need those millions in so many other places.

Latest Senate Polls

State - Democrat - D % - Republican - R % - Start - End - Pollster
Arizona Mark Kelly 51% Martha McSally* 42% Jun 13 - Jun 15 - Civiqs
Georgia Jon Ossoff 45% David Perdue* 44% Jun 12 - Jun 13 - PPP
Iowa Theresa Greenfield 48% Joni Ernst* 45% Jun 06 - Jun 08 - Civiqs
Iowa Theresa Greenfield 46% Joni Ernst* 43% Jun 07 - Jun 10 - Selzer
Michigan Gary Peters* 48% John James 32% May 31 - Jun 07 - Kiaer Research
Michigan Gary Peters* 36% John James 30% Jun 12 - Jun 15 - Marketing Resource Grp.

Mississippi Mike Espy 41% Cindy Hyde-Smith* 49% May 27 - May 28 - PPP
New Mexico Ben Ray Lujan 48% Mark Ronchetti 34% Jun 12 - Jun 13 - PPP
* Denotes incumbent

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

Senate
Dem - 53 seats (+1 since June 9)
GOP - 45 seats (-1 since June 9)
Tied - 2 seats (no change) North Carolina, South Carolina

Strong Dem (44) (-2 since June 9)
Likely Dem (4) (+2 since June 9)
Barely Dem (5) (+1 since June 9)
Exactly tied (2) (no change)
Barely GOP (1) (no change)
Likely GOP (3) (no change)
Strong GOP (41) (-1 since June 9)

Dem pickups vs. 2018 - Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Montana
GOP pickups vs. 2018 - Alabama

The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (counting the two independents as Democrats):

12 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2020 and 35 seats not up, for a total of 47 seats
22 Republican seats up for reelection in 2020 and 31 seats not up, for a total of 53 seats

In a reversal from 2018, the Republicans will be playing defense, with many more seats up than the Democrats. The good news for the GOP is that most of these are in deep red states and are considered safe.

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.
States that are entirely gray have no senatorial race this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:59 am 
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Texas slides from tied to Trump.

Another poll of Texas that has the gap between candidates small enough to be within the margin of error (which makes it a de facto tie). Trump still leads pretty consistently, and he's probably going to win the Lone Star State when all is said and done. However, he and his campaign are going to have no choice but to spend time and money making sure that is the result, which means less time and money in other places they are sorely needed.

Latest Presidential Polls

State - Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Florida - 51% - 40% - Jun 09 - Jun 11 - TIPP
Kentucky - 37% - 57% - Jun 13 - Jun 15 - Civiqs
Michigan - 51% - 38% - Jun 09 - Jun 12 - TIPP
New Hampshire 49% - 42% - Jun 13 - Jun 16 - St. Anselm College

Texas --- 46% - 48% - Jun 18 - Jun 19 - PPP

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 368 electoral votes (no change)
Trump - 170 electoral votes (+38 since June 17)
Ties --- 0 (-38 since June 17)

Strong Dem (258) (+29 since June 17)
Likely Dem (44) (no change)
Barely Dem (66) (-29 since June 17)
Exactly tied (0) (-38 since June 17)
Barely GOP (66) (+38 since June 17)
Likely GOP (14) (no change)
Strong GOP (90) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:19 am 
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The Presidency

Image

The Senate

Image


Last edited by Mr. Nice Guy on Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:14 am, edited 3 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:30 am 
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Joined: Sat Jun 09, 2012 7:25 pm
Posts: 3973
Location: Oregon
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“Listen to everyone, read everything; believe absolutely nothing unless you can prove it in your own right!”


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:12 pm 
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Bob Englehart
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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:12 am 
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Texas slides from tied back to Trump.

Latest Presidential Polls

State - Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Colorado - 56% - 39% - Jun 29 - Jun 30 - PPP
Georgia -- 49% - 45% - Jun 25 - Jun 26 - PPP
Maine ---- 53% - 42% - Jul 02 - Jul 03 - PPP
Michigan - 50% - 44% - Jun 26 - Jun 27 - PPP

Montana -- 38% - 52% - Jun 17 - Jun 26 - U. of Montana
New York - 57% - 32% - Jun 23 - Jun 25 - Siena Coll.
N Carolina - 45% - 44% - Jun 22 - Jun 25 - East Carolina U.
Texas ----- 44% - 48% - Jun 19 - Jun 29 - YouGov
Texas ----- 48% - 46% - Jun 24 - Jun 25 - PPP

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 368 electoral votes (no change)
Trump - 170 electoral votes (+38 since June 26)
Ties ----- 0 electoral votes (-38 since June 26)

Strong Dem (233) (-16 since June 26)
Likely Dem (80) (+16 since June 26)
Barely Dem (55) (no change)
Exactly tied (0) (-38 since June 26)
Barely GOP (66) (+38 since June 26)
Likely GOP (11) (-3 since June 26)
Strong GOP (93) (+3 since June 26)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.

Steve Sack
Image


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:26 am 
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Posts: 6799
Location: Québec country (let me dream...)
It has to be a indiscutable and irrefutable defeat for Trump.
If not, if he loses by a small margin, he will not leave the WH.
He will fight like an enraged animal cause it's not in his nature to even admit he lost.
He will resort to his 40% of hard fans to do stupid things to support him.
Who knows ? Starting another Civil War ?

That was in my local newspaper this morning and I tend to believe that it's true.
Trump is not a fan of Democracy. He is more one that envies Dictators.

SO, NOVEMBER 3rd, FOR YOUR OWN GOOD, TRUMP NEEDS TO BE CRUSHED

_________________
No doubt, we're doomed ! For a real diplomacy: abolish Electoral College
Ignore list: DiscoBoy


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:10 am 
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Mij wrote:
TRUMP NEEDS TO BE CRUSHED
Image
Image
Image


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:12 am 
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Good one Mr.NG
8)

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No doubt, we're doomed ! For a real diplomacy: abolish Electoral College
Ignore list: DiscoBoy


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:51 am 
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Texas flips from Trump to Biden. Arizona now tied.

This is the first poll since Feb. 15 that doesn't have Joe Biden ahead in Arizona. It is probably just a statistical fluke, though. Is Texas blue? Hard to believe, but it may genuinely be in play. Spending money to defend Texas is not something the RNC was planning to do, but it may have to.

Latest Presidential Polls

State - Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Alabama - 41% - 55% - Jul 02 - Jul 09 - Auburn U. at Montgomery
Alaska --- 45% - 48% - Jul 07 - Jul 08 - PPP
Arizona -- 46% - 46% - Jul 07 - Jul 10 - YouGov
Florida --- 48% - 42% - Jul 07 - Jul 10 - YouGov
N. Carolina 50% - 46% - Jul 07 - Jul 08 - PPP
Texas ---- 45% - 46% - Jul 07 - Jul 10 - YouGov
Texas ---- 48% - 43% - Jun 29 - Jul 07 - U. of Texas

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 395 electoral votes (+27 since July 7)
Trump - 132 electoral votes (-38 since July 7)
Ties ---- 11 electoral votes (+11 since July 7) Arizona (11)

Strong Dem (233) (no change)
Likely Dem (69) (-11 since July 7)
Barely Dem (93) (+38 since July 7)
Exactly tied (11) (+11 since July 7)
Barely GOP (31) (-35 since July 7)
Likely GOP (11) (no change)
Strong GOP (90) (-3 since July 7)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Florida (29), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Texas (38), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:56 am 
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All the money that Donald Trump's campaign is burning in Arizona isn't doing much good.

Latest Presidential Polls

State ---- Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Arizona ---- 49% - 44% - Jul 06 - Jul 07 - OH Predictive Insights
Missouri --- 43% - 50% - Jun 23 - Jul 01 - YouGov
Montana --- 42% - 51% - Jul 09 - Jul 10 - PPP

Montana --- 45% - 49% - Jul 11 - Jul 13 - Civiqs
Pennsylvania 52% - 42% - Jul 09 - Jul 13 - Monmouth U.

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 406 electoral votes (+11 since Monday)
Trump - 132 electoral votes (no change)
Ties ----- 0 electoral votes (-11 since Monday)

Strong Dem (233) (no change)
Likely Dem (69) (no change)
Barely Dem (104) (+11 since Monday)
Exactly tied (0) (-11 since Monday)
Barely GOP (21) (-10 since Monday)
Likely GOP (24) (+13 since Monday)
Strong GOP (87) (-3 since Monday)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Texas (38), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.

Latest Senate Polls

State ----- Democrat - D % - Republican - R % - Start - End - Pollster
Alabama - Doug Jones* 36% - Tommy Tuberville 44% - Jul 02-Jul 09 - Auburn U. at Montgomery
Alaska --- Al Gross 34% - Dan Sullivan* 39% - Jul 07-Jul 08 - PPP

Arizona -- Mark Kelly 46% - Martha McSally* 42% - Jul 07-Jul 10 - YouGov
Arizona -- Mark Kelly 52% - Martha McSally* 43% - Jul 06-Jul 07 - OH Predictive Insights
Colorado - John Hickenlooper 51% - Cory Gardner* - 40% - Jun 29-Jun 30 - PPP

Maine --- Sara Gideon 46% - Susan Collins* 42% - Jul 02-Jul 03 - PPP
Michigan - Gary Peters* 47% - John James 39% - Jun 26-Jun 27 - PPP
Montana - Steve Bullock 47% - Steve Daines* 43% - Jun 17-Jun 26 - U. of Montana
Montana - Steve Bullock 46% - Steve Daines* 44% - Jul 09-Jul 10 - PPP
Montana - Steve Bullock 47% - Steve Daines* 49% - Jul 11-Jul 13 - Civiqs
N Carolina Cal Cunningham 41% - Thom Tillis* 41% - Jun 22-Jun 25 - East Carolina U.
N Carolina Cal Cunningham 47% - Thom Tillis* 39% - Jul 07-Jul 08 - PPP
Texas --- Mary Hegar 35% - John Cornyn* 42% - Jun 24-Jun 25 - PPP
Texas --- Mary Hegar 29% - John Cornyn* 42% - Jun 29-Jul 07 - U. of Texas
Texas --- Mary Hegar 36% - John Cornyn* 44% - Jul 07-Jul 10 - YouGov

* Denotes incumbent

Today's stats: (if the election were held today

Senate
Dem - 51 seats (-1 since June 26)
GOP - 47 seats (no change)
Tied - 2 seats (+1 since June 26) Montana, South Carolina

Strong Dem (44) (-2 since June 26)
Likely Dem (3) (+1 since June 26)
Barely Dem (4) (no change)
Exactly tied (2) (+1 since June 26)
Barely GOP (1) (-1 since June 26)
Likely GOP (4) (+2 since June 26)
Strong GOP (42) (-1 since June 26)

Dem pickups vs. 2018 - Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina
GOP pickups vs. 2018 - Alabama

The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (counting the two independents as Democrats):

12 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2020 and 35 seats not up, for a total of 47 seats
23 Republican seats up for reelection in 2020 and 30 seats not up, for a total of 53 seats

In a reversal from 2018, the Republicans will be playing defense, with many more seats up than the Democrats. The good news for the GOP is that most of these are in deep red states and are considered safe.

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.
States that are entirely gray have no senatorial race this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:43 am 
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John Darkow
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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:09 am 
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Ohio slides back from Biden to Trump. Trump is getting pounded just about everywhere else.

Latest Presidential Polls

State ----- Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Alaska ------ 48% - 49% - Jun 23 - Jul 07 - Alaska Survey Research
Arizona ----- 49% - 45% - Jul 17 - Jul 18 - PPP
Arizona ----- 49% - 45% - Jul 18 - Jul 24 - SSRS
Arizona ----- 50% - 45% - Jul 14 - Jul 22 - Marist Coll.
Florida ------ 50% - 44% - Jul 13 - Jul 14 - St. Pete polls
Florida ------ 51% - 38% - Jul 16 - Jul 20 - Quinnipiac U.
Florida ------ 51% - 46% - Jul 18 - Jul 24 - SSRS
Michigan ---- 51% - 44% - Jul 09 - Jul 10 - PPP
Michigan ---- 49% - 40% - Jul 18 - Jul 20 - Fox News
Michigan ---- 48% - 42% - Jul 21 - Jul 24 - YouGov
Michigan ---- 52% - 40% - Jul 18 - Jul 24 - SSRS
Minnesota --- 51% - 38% - Jul 18 - Jul 20 - Fox News

Ohio -------- 50% - 46% - Jul 15 - Jul 16 - Pulse Opinion Research
Ohio -------- 45% - 46% - Jul 21 - Jul 24 - YouGov
Pennsylvania - 51% - 46% - Jul 15 - Jul 16 - Pulse Opinion Research
Pennsylvania - 50% - 39% - Jul 18 - Jul 20 - Fox News

Texas ------- 45% - 44% - Jul 16 - Jul 20 - Quinnipiac U.

Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 388 electoral votes (-18 since July 17)
Trump - 150 electoral votes (+18 since July 17)
Ties ----- 0 electoral votes (no change)

Strong Dem (223) (-10 since July 17)
Likely Dem (79) (+10 since July 17)
Barely Dem (86) (-18 since July 17)
Exactly tied (0) (no change)
Barely GOP (39) (+18 since July 17)
Likely GOP (24) (no change)
Strong GOP (87) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), Texas (38), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:55 am 
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Steve Sack
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Georgia slips back from Biden to tied.

A Shitload Of New Presidential Polls

State ----- Biden - Trump - Start - End - Pollster
Alaska 44% 50% Jul 23 Jul 24 PPP
Arizona 49% 42% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Arizona 46% 38% Jul 19 Jul 23 Redfield and Wilton Strategies
Colorado 52% 39% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Colorado 54% 41% Jul 23 Jul 24 PPP

Florida 49% 46% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Florida 48% 41% Jul 19 Jul 21 Redfield and Wilton Strategies
Florida 50% 46% Jul 20 Jul 23 Mason Dixon
Georgia 47% 46% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Georgia 46% 45% Jul 23 Jul 24 PPP
Georgia 47% 48% Jul 23 Jul 27 Monmouth U.
Georgia 46% 45% Jul 28 Jul 31 YouGov
Iowa 47% 48% Jul 23 Jul 24 PPP
Massachusetts 55% 23% Jul 17 Jul 20 MassINC
Maine 50% 38% Jul 18 Jul 24 Colby College
Maine 53% 42% Jul 23 Jul 24 PPP
Michigan 52% 42% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Michigan 49% 37% Jul 19 Jul 24 Redfield and Wilton Strategies

Minnesota 47% 44% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Minnesota 52% 42% Jul 22 Jul 23 PPP
Montana 45% 50% Jul 23 Jul 24 PPP
New Hampshire 52% 39% Jun 18 Jun 22 U. of New Hampshire
New Hampshire 53% 40% Jul 16 Jul 28 U. of New Hampshire
New Jersey 51% 33% Jul 07 Jul 12 DKC Analytics

North Carolina 47% 47% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
North Carolina 51% 44% Jul 14 Jul 22 Marist Coll.
North Carolina 49% 46% Jul 23 Jul 24 PPP
North Carolina 43% 42% Jul 19 Jul 21 Redfield and Wilton Strategies
North Carolina 48% 44% Jul 28 Jul 31 YouGov
Ohio 45% 48% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Pennsylvania 50% 42% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Pennsylvania 48% 41% Jul 19 Jul 21 Redfield and Wilton Strategies
Pennsylvania 50% 41% Jul 20 Jul 26 Franklin & Marshall Coll.

Texas 47% 45% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Virginia 52% 41% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Virginia 50% 39% Jul 11 Jul 19 Virginia Commonwealth U.
Washington 62% 28% Jul 22 Jul 27 SurveyUSA
Wisconsin 50% 43% Jul 17 Jul 26 Morning Consult
Wisconsin 45% 35% Jul 19 Jul 24 Redfield and Wilton Strategies


Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

President (270 electoral votes needed to win)
Biden -- 372 electoral votes (-16 since July 27)
Trump - 150 electoral votes (no change)
Ties ---- 16 electoral votes (+16 since July 27) Georgia (16)

Strong Dem (233) (+10 since July 27)
Likely Dem (80) (+1 since July 27)
Barely Dem (59) (-27 since July 27)
Exactly tied (16) (+16 since July 27)
Barely GOP (36) (-3 since July 27)
Likely GOP (27) (+3 since July 27)
Strong GOP (87) (no change)

Dem pickups vs. 2016 - Arizona (11), Florida (29), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), Texas (38), Wisconsin (10)
GOP pickups vs. 2016 - none

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.


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 Post subject: Re: Electoral Vote 2020
PostPosted: Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:39 am 
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Posts: 7788
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If Mark Kelly is elected to the Senate, then Arizona will have two Democratic senators. In addition, it might go for Joe Biden in the presidential election. Will Arizona become a blue state, like New Mexico? It is beginning to look like that. After all, it wasn't so long ago that Virginia was a red state and now it is a blue state. Also, North Carolina is on the verge of becoming a purple state. And Georgia and Texas are slowly moving in that direction. What should be extremely worrying to long-term Republican strategists (if there are any) is that a number of large states have gone from red to purple to blue or are in the process of doing so, but no large blue states are turning red (and Trump's tiny freak victories in the Rust Belt aren't signs of a fundamental shift there). If Arizona and North Carolina become blue states like Virginia, and Georgia and Texas become the new swing states, what is the future of the Republican Party?

It sure looks like Donald Trump has coattails, and not in a good way for the Republican Party. The same states whose EVs are slipping away from Trump are prepping to turn their Senate seat over to the Democrats. If the results shown here all came to pass, then the Democrats could lose Alabama, and they would still recapture the Senate (by virtue of holding Michigan and gaining Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina).

Latest Senate Polls

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has to be thrilled with the polls these days. Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) appears safe, and Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) is no longer hopeless, given the opponent he drew. Meanwhile, pretty much everything is coming up roses in North Carolina, Maine, Arizona, and Colorado, while the Democrats also have an excellent shot at flipping the seats in Montana and Iowa, and outside shots at half a dozen other seats.

Al Gross would have liked a couple more reasonably close polls before getting a result like this, so as to get the money flowing. Still, Alaska's tough to poll, and so Gross shouldn't be too depressed, yet.

Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) is not the kind of candidate who wins in landslides. However, he's also not the type to lose a safe seat. Mitch McConnell may be the turtle, but Peters is the tortoise: "Slow and steady wins the race."

Trump may get the blame for COVID-19 in Texas, but Cornyn seems to be immune. He's not even in the Senate leadership anymore, so voters aren't blaming him. Also, Mary (MJ) Hegar is not well known in Texas (yet).

There's no question that Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has assumed underdog status; the only question is how far under.

State ----- Democrat ---- D % - Republican ---- R % - Start --- End -- Pollster
Alaska ---- Al Gross ------- 40% - Dan Sullivan* --- 53% - Jun 23 - Jul 07 - Alaska Survey Research
Arizona --- Mark Kelly ----- 51% - Martha McSally* - 42% - Jul 21 - Jul 22 -- PPP
Arizona --- Mark Kelly ----- 50% - Martha McSally* - 43% - Jul 18 - Jul 24 -- SSRS
Arizona --- Mark Kelly ----- 53% - Martha McSally* - 41% - Jul 14 - Jul 22 -- Marist Coll.
Arizona --- Mark Kelly ----- 52% - Martha McSally* - 36% - Jul 17 - Jul 26 -- Morning Consult
Arizona --- Mark Kelly ----- 53% - Martha McSally* - 35% - Jul 19 - Jul 23 -- Redfield and Wilton Strategies
Colorado -- J Hickenlooper - 48% - Cory Gardner* --- 42% - Jul 17 - Jul 26 -- Morning Consult

Georgia --- Jon Ossoff ----- 42% - David Perdue* --- 45% - Jul 17 - Jul 26 -- Morning Consult
Georgia --- Jon Ossoff ----- 43% - David Perdue* --- 50% - Jul 23 - Jul 27 -- Monmouth U.
Georgia --- Jon Ossoff ----- 43% - David Perdue* --- 45% - Jul 28 - Jul 31 -- YouGov
Maine ---- Sara Gideon ---- 47% - Susan Collins* --- 42% - Jul 22 - Jul 23 -- PPP
Maine ---- Sara Gideon ---- 44% - Susan Collins* --- 39% - Jul 18 - Jul 24 -- Colby College
Michigan -- Gary Peters* --- 49% - John James ------ 42% - Jul 09 - Jul 10 -- PPP
Michigan -- Gary Peters* --- 48% - John James ------ 38% - Jul 18 - Jul 20 -- Fox News
Michigan -- Gary Peters* --- 54% - John James ------ 38% - Jul 18 - Jul 24 -- SSRS
Michigan -- Gary Peters* --- 49% - John James ------ 35% - Jul 17 - Jul 26 -- Morning Consult
Michigan -- Gary Peters* --- 41% - John James ------ 34% - Jul 19 - Jul 21 -- Marketing Resource Grp.
Michigan -- Gary Peters* --- 52% - John James ------ 35% - Jul 19 - Jul 24 -- Redfield and Wilton Strategies
Michigan -- Gary Peters* --- 47% - John James ------ 39% - Jul 28 - Jul 29 -- PPP

Montana -- Steve Bullock --- 44% - Steve Daines* --- 50% - Jul 31 - Aug 02 - Emerson Coll.
N Carolina - C Cunningham - 48% - Thom Tillis* ---- 40% - Jul 22 - Jul 23 -- PPP
N Carolina - C Cunningham - 50% - Thom Tillis* ---- 41% - Jul 14 - Jul 22 -- Marist Coll.
N Carolina - C Cunningham - 46% - Thom Tillis* ---- 37% - Jul 17 - Jul 26 -- Morning Consult
N Carolina - C Cunningham - 47% - Thom Tillis* ---- 36% - Jul 19 - Jul 21 -- Redfield and Wilton Strategies
N Carolina - C Cunningham - 48% - Thom Tillis* ---- 39% - Jul 28 - Jul 31 -- YouGov

Texas ----- Mary Hegar ---- 38% - John Cornyn* --- 47% - Jul 16 - Jul 20 -- Quinnipiac U.

* Denotes incumbent

Today's stats: (if the election were held today

Senate
Dem - 51 seats (no change)
GOP - 48 seats (+1 since July 17)
Tied - 1 seat (-1 since July 17) South Carolina

Strong Dem (44) (no change)
Likely Dem (4) (+1 since July 17)
Barely Dem (3) (-1 since July 17)
Exactly tied (1) (-1 since July 17)
Barely GOP (0) (-1 since July 17)
Likely GOP (7) (+3 since July 17)
Strong GOP (41) (-1 since July 17)

Dem pickups vs. 2018 - Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina
GOP pickups vs. 2018 - Alabama

The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (counting the two independents as Democrats):

12 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2020 and 35 seats not up, for a total of 47 seats
23 Republican seats up for reelection in 2020 and 30 seats not up, for a total of 53 seats

In a reversal from 2018, the Republicans will be playing defense, with many more seats up than the Democrats. The good news for the GOP is that most of these are in deep red states and are considered safe.

Image

The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.
States that are entirely gray have no senatorial race this year.


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