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 Post subject: Election 2018
PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:55 pm 
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Steve Sack
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Today's stats: (if the election were held today)

The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (counting the two independents as Democrats):
26 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2018 and 23 seats not up, for a total of 49 seats
9 Republican seats up for reelection in 2018 and 42 seats not up, for a total of 51 seats

In a reversal from 2016, the Democrats will be playing defense, trying to hold the 10 seats in states that Donald Trump won. There is only one Republican seat, that of Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV), in a state that Hillary Clinton won.

Strong Dem (40)
Likely Dem (7)
Barely Dem (2)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely GOP (2)
Likely GOP (0)
Strong GOP (49)

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The saturated colors mean the candidate is leading by at least 10% and is virtually certain of carrying the state.
The lighter colors indicate a lead of 5-9%, which is outside the margin of error, but in politics a week is a long time.
The states with a white center are statistical ties.
States that are entirely white are exact ties.
States that are gray have no seats up for election.

http://www.electoral-vote.com


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 8:02 pm 
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Adam Zyglis
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The House midterms are going to be asymmetric warfare. Election guru Charlie Cook has released new ratings on House races, and nearly all the competitive districts are held by Republicans, meaning the Republicans are playing defense almost everywhere and the Democrats are playing offense almost everywhere.

For starters, no Democratic seat leans Republican or is likely Republican. In contrast, nine Republican seats lean Democratic or are likely Democratic. In a blue wave, all will be lost. In addition, 21 Republican seats are rated as toss-ups while only two Democratic seats are toss-ups. Another 25 Republican seats are rated lean Republican, which means they are competitive but the Republican has a slight edge. In a blue wave, some of these will flip. All in all, in the range lean Democratic to lean Republican (meaning the battleground districts) Cook has 53 Republican seats and only 5 Democratic seats. The result is that a tremendous number of Republican seats are in danger of flipping and only a handful of Democratic seats are in any danger.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings


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